The Shape of the Future

E M Risse



 

What’s Next?

 

The defeat of the taxes-for-roads referenda was a triumph for common sense. Now comes the hard part: deep reform of government, taxes and land use.        


 

The 5 November 2002 vote on the sales tax was a great victory for common sense and a significant defeat for land speculators, as well as “business-as-usual” politicians and those that supported them. At the same time, the outcome presents an unprecedented challenge for those who desire a sustainable future. 

 

Despite all the noise and ink, little of lasting benefit will come from the election unless citizens can take advantage of the opportunity provided by this refutation of business as usual. Citizens must step forward and forge intelligent, fundamental change in settlement patterns and governance structure. The scope of needed change is far more profound than just securing a fair allocation of existing funds or finding additional sources of money for transport facilities.

 

The vote was a refutation of past action and inaction.  It was not a vote for a sustainable future because there is not yet a broad awareness of what is needed to achieve that goal.

 

With the defeat of the referendum, speculators, developers and builders cannot mask the fact there is little prospect for new roads to open more land for scattered urban land uses. That is a big plus. However, the vote will have lasting impact only if smarter growth interests attack misleading ad campaigns that mask locational reality.

 

The smart growth forces must do more than stop, hobble and postpone projects. They must generate a base of support for the fundamental change needed to create balanced communities in sustainable New Urban Regions. Balanced, Alpha Communities are the sine qua non of really smart growth.

 

The pre-election debate failed to educate governance practitioners or the media. They do not yet grasp the reality that no amount of money, no matter what the source, will solve traffic congestion unless there are fundamental changes in human settlement patterns and the evolution of balanced communities.

 

In conceding defeat of the tax measure, Governor Warner said he was not “giving up on better roads and improved mass transit.” No one is giving up on better functioning streets, roads or shared vehicle systems, but the “solution” is not trying to build transport facilities to serve dysfunctional settlement patterns.

 

The day after the election, The Washington Post was still spending editorial page space supporting the sales tax as the “solution.” This was in spite of the vote and the fact that the paper’s own news stories provided some of the best ammunition the anti-sales-tax-forces had. The facts did not support the editorial position of the Post during the campaign.

 

In the media coverage since the election, nearly every proposed solution is presented with an equal and opposite reason why it will not work. This is a continuation of the “let's you and him fight” media coverage that characterized the election. Many proposed solutions, and most reasons why proposed solutions will not work, are rooted in a failure to understand the importance of functional human settlement patterns. The one solution that is not yet being widely discussed is fundamental change in the pattern and density of land use and the creation of balanced communities.

 

Beyond the need to understand the imperative of functional settlement patterns and the need for balanced communities, is the fact that many of Virginia’s most pressing fiscal and mobility problems stem from relying on a tragically flawed tax strategy and an 18th century governance structure. The Commonwealth must evolve a revenue stream based on taxes and fees that reflect the level and location of services rendered. Virginia must also evolve a governance structure that reflects economic, social and physical reality.

 

In the most simple terms, during the debate on the sales tax:

 

No state or municipal office holder who supported the sales tax increase committed to plan transportation and land use together. 

 

There was almost no discussion of the need for fundamental change in settlement pattern, tax strategy or governance structure. 

 

By putting the sales tax on the ballot, the legislature opted for stopgap political expediency. By supporting the measure, most governance practitioners and some business leaders fell in line for more of the same. The citizens were too smart to accept a non-solution. From the most optimistic perspective, the sales tax measure hastens the day of reckoning on transport, land use, tax strategy and governance structure. It makes the 2003 elections much more important.

 

While the vote provides an opportunity for progress, the real work is just beginning. Without a common basis of understanding among governance practitioners, citizens and the media, a new generation of leadership must still come forward with solutions. They must overcome the tendency of incumbents -- especially those who have controlled Virginia politics for decades -- to say to citizens who voted against the sales tax, “OK, you turned that down, now you can live with the consequences.” Citizens must not allow politicians to cobble up another non-solution.

 

-- November 20, 2002