Bacon's Rebellion

James A. Bacon

Handicapping the Referendum

Assuming residents vote their narrow self interests, approval of the sales tax referendum in Northern Virginia looks like a better bet than the one in Hampton Roads.

Strip away the special interests, the fund raising and the ad campaigns. Ignore the appeals to the common good, and blank out the endless point-counterpoint arguments. Just zoom in on voters’ raw self interest. When election day comes, how will the citizens of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads vote on local referenda to boost the sales tax for local transportation projects?

I’m no pollster, and I’m too chicken to forecast the outlook of either referendum. But I do think it likely that, unless given some lofty moral pretext to do otherwise, voters will be guided by the simple logic, “What’s in it for me?” Assuming that such short-term, self-interested thinking prevails on Nov. 5, the odds look considerably better for a “yes” vote in Northern Virginia than in Hampton Roads.

In Northern Virginia, traffic congestion is hands down the biggest political issue in the region. Viewed from the perspective of dry statistics, though, it’s hard to see what all the fuss is about. (My argument may seem counter-intuitive for a moment, but hang in there. You'll see where I'm going.)

Northern Virginians don’t spend significantly more time commuting to work than anyone else in the state. Oh, sure, we've heard the horror stories. And, no question, Northern Virginians think their roads are going to hell in a hand basket. But their perceptions are not entirely backed up by the facts.

According to the 2000 Census, Northern Virginians took marginally longer to drive to work on average in 2000 than they did a decade before, but the difference is hardly cataclysmic. Statewide, Virginians spent 14 percent longer driving to work in 2000 than they did in 1990, for an average commute of 27 minutes. But for Northern Virginia’s most populous localities – Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William – the time spent commuting increased by five percent or less. 

Rank: out of 134 Virginia cities and counties.

Commuting times increased at a more rapid clip in other parts of Virginia. Sixty-seven out of Virginia’s 134 jurisdictions saw their drives lengthen at a faster rate than did Alexandria, the worst-off Northern Virginia locality. Most of these were small cities and rural localities, presumably where many residents found themselves traveling greater distances to find work.

Ranked differently, by the absolute length of time it takes to get to work, Northern Virginians do appear to be more stressed -- but only modestly so. Clearly, Northern Virginians spend more time getting to work than residents of Virginia’s other major urban areas, Hampton Roads and Norfolk. But it’s not as if Northern Virginians have no company in this regard. In fact, inhabitants of 13 other jurisdictions take longer to get to work than residents of Prince William County, Northern Virginia's champion road warriors.

Focus for a moment on Fairfax County, home to half of all Northern Virginians. Residents of Virginia’s most populous locality spend only 3.7 minutes more per day driving to work than the average Virginian -- or 7.4 minutes round trip. What’s more, that represented a mere 1.3-minute longer commute in 2000 over the time it took 10 years previously. Those numbers hardly seem the raw material for massive voter discontent. If we based our analysis on those statistics alone, I would not hesitate to predict a thumbs-down vote this November.

But that’s not the whole story. The difference between Fairfax and, say, Mathews County is that Fairfaxites endure commutes at lower speeds in frustrating, stop-and-go conditions, while the Mathusians drive greater distances under less aggravating conditions. Additionally, the unpredictable nature of traffic congestion in Northern Virginia is such that Fairfaxites must make greater allowances for uncertainty: The trip usually takes 30 minutes, but the typical commuter must allow 45 minutes in case there’s a wreck on the Interstate.

Furthermore, Northern Virginians earn higher salaries and place a greater premium on their time. According to the Texas Transportation Institute, the costs of traffic congestion, including time wasted and gasoline consumed in idleness, amounts to $1,595 per traveler – or $655 per capita -- in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area.

Thus, although Northern Virginia commuting times are only a little longer than those of other Virginians, the level of frustration and the implicit cost is considerably higher. By hiking the sales tax by ½ percent, the referendum would raise about $130 million annually across the region – and cost residents about $72 per capita. Although proponents concede that the revenue would “barely dent the region’s annual shortfall,” they can advance a plausible argument[1] that the projects would at least keep conditions from getting materially worse than if the region did nothing.

To sum up the choice facing Northern Virginians, voters can ax the sales tax increase, in effect preserving the status quo, or pony up an estimated $72 per person annually in sales taxes for projects designed to take a nick out of the $655 annual “congestion tax.” The frustration is real. The sense that something, anything, must be done is palpable. The one-to-nine trade-off of pain for potential gain may prove persuasive to a majority of voters.

The calculus is considerably different in Hampton Roads. For starters, Hampton Roadsters don’t take nearly as long as their Northern Virginia brethren to get to work – or as long as most other Virginians, for that matter.

On average, the daily haul to and from work in Hampton Roads is about 15 minutes shorter than in Northern Virginia, and comparable to the Richmond region, where there is no discernible movement to raise the sales tax whatsoever.

Someone could try arguing that traffic isn't so bad now but it's getting worse very quickly. Commuting times in seven of the region’s 11 localities, led by Willliamsburg, racked up bigger increases during the 1990s than the state average. But such an argument wouldn't stand up. All but one of these localities are situated on the Peninsula, which has been afflicted in recent years by seemingly endless construction work on Interstate 64. South of the river where two thirds of the population resides, highways have been largely spared the ravages of construction delays. Indeed, Norfolk and Virginia Beach, the region's two most populous localities, logged increases in commuting time considerably below the state average.

When Hampton Roads voters go to the polls, they will face the following predicament. Congestion can be difficult, particularly around the Hampton Roads bridge-tunnel, which chokes up at frequent but unpredictable intervals. On the other hand, commuting times really aren't so bad compared to other parts of Virginia. Approving the referendum would boost the sales tax by a full percent, exempting food and drug purchases. The tax would cost about $60 million annually, about $40 per person, according to the Hampton Roads Partnership. The money would pay for projects designed to address an estimated $230 per capita congestion cost, as calculated by the Texas Transportation Institute.

Put another way, one dollar in sales tax offers the prospect to mitigate up to six dollars in “congestion tax." In terms of perceived, what’s-in-it-for-me value, that trade-off compares unfavorably to the Northern Virginia ratio of one to nine.

The Hampton Roads tax backers have a more difficult selling proposition than their counterparts in Northern Virginia. The centerpiece of the transportation package is a third crossing over Hampton Roads, linking Norfolk and Newport News. This enormous project would simulate the economy by making possible the continued expansion of port facilities, provide an additional hurricane evacuation route, and bind the two sides of the water more closely. A more cohesive regional identity, boosters contend, would make the Hampton Roads MSA more competitive in the economic-development arena.

From the perspective of the long-term health of the community, these are all sound reasons for building the third crossing. Whether they appeal to the transient population of Hampton Roads, however, is questionable. Citizens would begin paying the tax almost immediately, while the benefits of the transportation projects would not be felt until construction was complete years from now -- in many cases after the voter/taxpayer had moved on. Hampton Roadsters haven’t reached the fever pitch of agitation over traffic that Northern Virginians have, and they aren't as desperate for a "solution." The referendum to add a one-percent sales tax will be a harder sell.

Of course, few voters will ever see the U.S. Census data I've used in this analysis. Few will bother to think about the issues systematically. They'll hear a lot of conflicting views in the media, then base their decision on the information available to them. How long does it take them to get to work? How frustrated do they get by congestion-related delays? Will any of the identified transportation projects make their life easier? How squeezed do they feel by taxes this year? 

I’ll take the coward’s way out and forego any predictions regarding success or failure of either referenda. But I will venture this prediction, win or lose, Northern Virginians will cast a larger percentage of “yes” ballots than will voters in Hampton Roads.

-- October 28, 2002