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Virginia
is about to enter the climate change debate. How
it does so will determine if it wants to be an
advocate for responsible change or merely
reiterate out-of-date arguments.
On
December 21, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine established the
Virginia Commission on Climate Change, asking it
to conduct five tasks: (1) develop an inventory of
greenhouse gas emissions within the Commonwealth,
to include prognostication on the emissions
expected through 2025; (2) evaluate expected
impacts of climate change on Virginia’s
citizens, natural resources, and economy; (3)
identify climate change approaches pursued by
other states, regions, and the federal government;
and then (4) identify what Virginia must do to
prepare for the likely consequences of climate
change; and (5) identify actions beyond those
identified in the state’s Energy Plan that need
to be taken to achieve a 30 percent greenhouse gas
reduction goal by 2025, returning the Commonwealth
to the emissions levels of 2000.
The
first three tasks are generally ministerial. The
only note of caution necessary for their
successful completion is to avoid analytical bias
and error.
The
Commission should concentrate special attention on
the probability of specific projections, whether
in the weather or in energy use. Science and
experience show extreme estimates will be least
likely and cannot be the basis of sound proposals.
Further, the Commission will want to take special
precautions to ensure the technical assistance it
uses in this effort is significantly better than
that used by other states.
Credible
criticism followed a lack of complete transparency
of similar analytical efforts taken by North
Carolina and Maryland. Full transparency will be
essential as will a robust public discourse on the
assumptions and analytical methods the Commission
will apply to carry out these ministerial goals.
The
Commission’s real challenge will be to figure
out what steps the state government should take to
meet the Governor’s goal. Ostensibly, the 30
percent reduction goal is intended to prevent
global warming.
Some
argue that this goal is either too little, or too
late. But in any case, this goal is no longer
necessary. The scientists that prepare the
technical reports for the International Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) have now concluded that it
is too late to prevent catastrophic climate change
through reduction of greenhouse gases alone. Some
IPCC scientists believe that the earth has
surpassed the “tipping point” and global
warming is on auto-pilot toward catastrophe with
ocean levels rising by more than 20 feet over the
next few decades. Other climate scientists
disagree. Regardless of who is correct,
there is exciting news that can allow the
discussion on how to confront global warming to
proceed in a more reasonable and reasoned fashion.
Nobel
Laureate Thomas Schelling has shown we can use
low-cost planet-scale atmospheric engineering
referred to a “geo-engineering” – which will
not permanently alter our climate -- to prevent
significant global warming and thus prevent
massive ocean rise. With this knowledge, the
Governor’s Commission is now free to view the 30
percent greenhouse gas reduction goal as one
related to energy independence, conservation and
energy transition that will allow meeting
environmental goals without sacrificing economic
growth or the state’s social safety net.
With
geo-engineering, greenhouse gas reduction is no
longer the necessary solution to global warming. Still,
we do have many environmental reasons to
transition away from almost total reliance on
current carbon-based fuel technologies. As a coal-
and gas-rich state, we need to foster technologies
that provide both low greenhouse gas emissions and
increased energy independence. And we need to
foster significant energy conservation.
Fortunately,
the private sector is best suited to undertake
these essential tasks. Meanwhile, the Commonwealth
should be careful to balance limited state
expenditures related to carbon reduction against
the many other important needs of our citizens.
It
is incumbent upon the members of the Governor’s
Commission on Climate Change to look beyond the
everyday rhetoric and seek realistic solutions
that will enhance, not harm, our economic future.
If it does that, a huge benefit will have been
served.
--
January 14, 2008
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