The Shape of the Future

E M Risse


 

The Road Ahead

 

As the MainStream Media fails to provide information citizens need to function as voters and consumers, a citizen-driven media will emerge to fill the void. It's not yet clear what that new media will look like.


 

The Route So Far

 

To open PART IV of THE ESTATES MATRIX, it is appropriate to review the first three components of this Backgrounder:

 

PART I (“The Morphed Estate”) focuses on the fact that citizens are not getting the information they need to make intelligent decisions in the voting booth or in the marketplace. It turns out they are also not getting the information they need to be effective members or leaders of Institutions. The reason is that MainStream Media “has abandoned its responsibilities.” These duties and obligations were the basis for Media’s (aka, Journalism’s) claim to special privileges and control of The Fourth Estate.

PART I also noted that in order to examine and understand the scope and reality of Information deprivation, citizens need a new Conceptual Framework that provides a context with which to understand the rise and fall of MainStream Media.

PART II (“The Estates Matrix”) spells out, column by column and row by row, a new Conceptual Framework. The draft of THE ESTATES MATRIX turns out to provide a context for understanding much more than just the reasons why citizens are not getting the information they need.

 

PART III (“The Rise and Fall of Journalism”) revisits the problems outlined in PART I within the context provided by THE ESTATES MATRIX.

 

PART III documents why and how MainStream Media rose to power and profiles the shrinking role to which MainStream Media is now consigned: Promoting Mass OverConsumption.    Enterprises have a legal obligation to maximize shareholder value – that is what they are created to accomplish. Within a sustainable context for society, that is a desirable goal.  However, in the present dysfunctional and unsustainable context, this objective has been warped to mean “maximize annual rate of growth” – aka, short-term profit. For this reason Mass OverConsumption is the life-blood of Enterprises and the Second Estate.

Enterprise-owned MainStream Media outlets have no choice but to support Mass OverConsumption.

PART III ended with a review of advertising and suggested why the advertising base of MainStream Media may be in jeopardy. 

 

Light at the End of the Tunnel

 

PART IV suggests that if citizens understand their enlightened self-interest in time to establish themselves as an intelligent force in the Fourth Estate, they can drive a stake through the heart of advertisement-driven Mass OverConsumption. If citizens can do that, then there is hope that they can redirect society and achieve a sustainable trajectory for contemporary civilization.

 

Unless Citizens (individuals and Households) take action very soon, however, they will have no role in managing society other than as:

  • Voters who are manipulated by the politicians and governance practitioners that run Agencies (The First Estate)

  • Consumers who are manipulated by the advertising and public relations campaigns of Enterprises (The Second Estate), and

  • Members who are manipulated by the managers of Institutions (The Third Estate).

This summary is neither alarmist nor hyperventilating. Time is running out.

 

PART IV will also outline how citizens can establish a presence in the Fourth Estate which will provide the information they need to make intelligent decisions in the voting booth, in the marketplace and as informed members and leaders of open Institutions.

 

Whom Do You Trust?

 

Start with a simple question.

Whom do you trust to look out for your interests and the interest of members of your Household?

 

Few citizens believe that dominance of any of the first three Estates – Agencies, Enterprises, Institutions – will provide a path to safety, happiness and a sustainable trajectory for civilization.

Do you trust Agencies run by the likes of Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales, Pervez Musharraf, King Abdulla, Khalifa bin Zayid al-Nahayyan, Sellapan Ramanathan or Vladimir Putin?  Governments (Agencies) such as the ones in this group (Venezuela, Bolivia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Singapore and Russia) are the probable future shape of Agencies if governance structures do not evolve to reflect economic, social and physical reality of contemporary civilization. (See End Note Twenty-nine.)

 

When considering Agencies it is important to understand that:

Without a sustainable trajectory for civilization it is not possible to create and maintain the economic, social and physical conditions necessary to make the majority of citizens happy and safe. Conditions that favor and serve a few at the top of the economic food chain is not a formula for prosperity, stability or sustainability. Having a majority of citizens who are happy and safe is a precondition for democracy.

Politicians and go-along-to-get-along governance practitioners who now run Agencies rely on telling voters what they want to hear at election time. When it comes to what they do rather than what they say, elected office holders do whatever nets the biggest campaign contributions, pork for donors and corruption for all in the “party” – such an appropriate name for political Institutions!

 

For a sampling of current reality, just Google the news coverage of topics such as the Consumer Safety Commission, Federal Election Commission, Federal Trade Commission, Corps of Engineers, Department of Agriculture, Katrina / Rita response ... then try state and municipal Agencies, the list of failures to govern intelligently is nearly endless.

 

Agencies that now exist have proven to be attractive to the likes of Spiro, Bob, Bert, John, Karl, Tom, Ted, Larry and Dick. (See End Note Thirty.)

 

Do you trust Enterprises with track records like GM, Exxon, Microsoft, Enron or Wal*Mart? How about Agency-chartered or Agency-regulated Enterprises (aka, Enterprises With Privileges) like Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac or Sally Mae, Con Ed, PG&E, Dominion, etc? 

 

The emotionally loaded, deceptive and reality-challenged advertisements and public relations campaigns of Enterprises drive Mass OverConsumption. Advertising and public relations efforts do not convey fact. They are created to convince consumers what they should want or need. Enterprises also have set up elaborate gambling venues called stock markets and futures markets to create the illusion of productivity – profit without product.

 

Chapter 5 of The Shape of the Future provides a profile of “the winner-take-all” economic context of contemporary society through 2000. (The term “winner-take-all” was coined by Robert Frank and Phillip Cook in a book of that title. Two new books, "Supercapitalism: The Transformation of Business, Democracy, and Everyday Life," by Robert Reich and "Deep Economy: the Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future," by Bill McKibben bring this story up to date and will be profiled in Chapter 17 of BRIDGES, the second book of TRILO-G. )

 

As is the case with Agency dominance, when considering Enterprise control it must be understood that:

Without a sustainable trajectory for civilization it is not possible to create and maintain the economic, social and physical conditions necessary to make the majority of citizens happy and safe. Conditions that favor and serve a few at the top of the economic food chain is not a formula for prosperity, stability or sustainability. Having a majority of citizens who are happy and safe is a precondition for democracy and market economies.

Do you trust Institutions such as churches, conservation organizations, AARP, the Boy Scouts, the United Way, Red Cross, Blue Cross - Blue Shield, Harvard, Oral Roberts, Smithsonian, Rockefeller Brothers, Brookings, Reason, Cato, Club of Growth, political parties, PACs, First Fundamentalist Bible Mission, NRA, etc?

 

Institutions – the Third Estate – might seem like the most trustworthy of the three Estates. After all, they are controlled by “members” and boards. However, the farther down the list one gets, the less it seems like trusting Institutions to be in control of society is a good idea. That is because of the nature of Institutional self-interest profiled in PART II.

 

Institutions hire professionals to hone their pleas to members and the messages to support their goals unrelated to the reality of the message content. Institution leaders must know their statements are false and their positions bogus but if it meets their objectives... even the pleas for funds from one’s college alma mater are getting old.

While not all Institutions have slipped as much as the Smithsonian or as far as the NRA and some Mega churches, Institutions do a great job of demonstrating the truth of the adage: Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”

Within the constraints outlined in PART I, MainStream Media provides a continuing parade of stories about overspending Institution managers and failed pastors. Perhaps the Smithsonian Institution has fallen the fastest and the farthest. But for activities that are within the law, the NRA may take the prize. (For a chilling view from a gun lobby insider on the depth to which NRA has fallen see End Note Thirty-one.)

 

As is the case with Agency or Enterprise dominance, when considering Institutions it must be understood that:

Without a sustainable trajectory for civilization it is not possible to create and maintain the economic, social and physical conditions necessary to make the majority of citizens happy and safe. Conditions that favor and serve a few at the top of the economic food chain is not a formula for prosperity, stability or sustainability. Having a majority of citizens who are happy and safe is a precondition for democracy, market economies and open Institutions.

If one looks behind the campaign promises (First Estate), the ads and stock prospectuses (Second Estate) and the fund raising brochures (Third Estate), it is hard to find any Organization in which citizens can believe is looking out for their best interest. Even Institutions with broad goals like “conservation” find ways to avoid putting the citizen first. (See APPENDIX TWO.)

 

The Issue of Time

 

Coming to well considered public judgments on the issues facing citizens (individuals and Households) will require time and attention. That is something that citizens are deprived of, thanks to the intentional and unintentional efforts of the Three Estates.

 

As we will spell out in PROPERTY DYNAMICS (PART I of ACTION PROGRAMS, the third book of TRILO-G), under the current conditions, citizens are Running as Hard as They Can (RHTC). RHTC citizens have no time to think about fundamentally important issues. They cannot find time to get enough sleep or eat a healthy diet. They cannot find time to seek assistance. They scramble from Estate to Estate looking for help at every crisis.

 

This reality is a clear condemnation of the most prosperous and most consumptive society in the history of the planet and the reason why citizens need to be able to rely on information to make intelligent decisions in the voting booth, in the market place and in forming and managing Institutions.

 

Alternatives to a Fourth Estate Vacuum

 

Broadly speaking, there are three alternatives – always three alternatives: 

  1. Lapsing to the pre-American Revolution framework of Three Estates occupied by those in control, in which the vast majority have No Estate, as explored in PART II.

  2. Creating a larger number of estates – five, six, seven, eight -- this is the moral equivalent of inflation.

  3. Evolving a process that provides citizens with the information they need within the Fourth Estate.

Let us briefly consider these options.

  1. People who fall into the “No Estate” category, unrepresented by Agencies, Enterprises or Institutions, would become non-citizens. This is where most humans existed 250 years ago.  Being in No Estate is not a pleasant place, as documented by the experience of millions over the past 12,000 years. The US of A fought at least three wars to end the No Estate option.

Among other tragedies, people falling into the No Estate category have no effective option to generate the information they need to establish a sustainable trajectory for civilization

  1. The second approach is to create more Estates. Already many interest groups claim to be “the Fifth Estate.” The Institutions set up to check “facts” in political campaigns – www.FactCheck.org, www.PolitiFact.com, www.fair.org – were dubbed “The Fifth Estate” by Utne Reader in the Nov-Dec 2007 issue. A Google search of The Fifth Estate turns up over 2.8 million hits, ranging from blog  sites to magazines to Enterprises to Institutions -- many, many Institutions.

With the multi-Estate option, one could foresee religious groups lining up to again have their own Estate. Soon the various denominations would be fighting over who controls that Estate leading to arguments for hundreds of “true” Estates. When one considers the breadth of interests represented by Institutions the number of self-proclaimed Estates appears infinite.

 

The multitude-of-Estates approach also would be unlikely to create a source for the information which citizens need.

  1. The most viable alternative would be for citizens to evolve a process from the remnants of the Fourth Estate that provides information for all citizens – the role that was abandoned by MainStream Media.

Step One: Real Citizen Media

 

No one should expect the leopard to change its spots. It is naive and counterproductive to dream that MainStream Media will again assume the role that it played in 1800, 1837, 1870, 1920, 1950 or even 1972.

 

There is ample documentation of those in one Estate pretending to play roles in another state for which they are no longer qualified. History is also replete – and not just since 1302 – with examples of the dominant player in one Estate attempting to over overpower other Estates. Those who champion control by Agencies (e.g. doctrinaire socialists), Enterprises (e.g. hyper-capitalists / apologists for Supercapitalism) or Institutions (e.g. true believers) are all convinced that their Estate should have the upper hand and control citizens.

Citizens have fared best when measured by the metrics of safety and happiness where and when there was a Balance between the Estates. Before 1837, there was thought to be a Balance between three Estates. Actually the three-Estate system did not work for at least a century before, as documented by the US of A Revolutionary War, the French Revolution, etc. Since 1837, it became imperative to have a Balance among four Estates.

The reason that three Estates were replaced by four is documented in PART II. In summary: As society became more complex and communication more essential, three Estates did not meet the needs of the vast majority of humans who aspired to, and have the right of, full citizenship.

 

To create a sustainable trajectory for civilization, citizens need to create new, participatory processes to help manage society. The first step is to take over the creation and dissemination of “news,” the information citizens need to make intelligent decisions.

 

The thesis of this Backgrounder is that citizens need to establish a complex framework for information generation and distribution in the Fourth Estate.

 

Citizens can do this by creating something we initially called “citizen media” and now call “Real Citizen Media.” (For the difference between ‘citizen media” and “Real Citizen Media” See End Note Thirty-two.)

 

This is not the place to detail the evolution of citizen-driven processes but it is clear that there are already thousands of saplings springing up around the Globe. Ongoing projects at SYNERGY/Planning will articulate some alternative processes in the future.

 

Most of those now referred to as “citizen media” do not see themselves as addressing the overarching issue of information generation and dissemination. They are just addressing a need that they and their friends / contacts / networks / supporters have identified. Further, as pointed out in End Note Thirty-two, many of these groups are interest / subject focused with no geographic orientation. None of the citizen media efforts we know of are aligned or congruent with the organic structure of human settlement patterns, especially at the Cluster-, Neighborhood-, Village- or Alpha Community Scales.

 

It is also clear that many “grass roots” efforts by community-serving MainStream Media (the “local” and “community” dailies and weeklies serving Neighborhood-, Village- and Community-scale urban agglomerations or the “periodicals” of advertising, subscription or Institution supported special interest publications) are an attempt to syphon off Neighborhood-, Village- and Community-scale energy that might drive an alternative media outlet, Real Citizen Media or some alternative.

 

MainStream Media controlled blogs, e-zines, etc., are created for the benefit of MainStream Media. They do not have to pay for the work of the bloggers, they do not pay the reporters in “News by You” or “citjays,” or for the work in “Photos by You.”  This volunteer effort enhances the MainStream Media product and keeps Enterprises in control of the revenue stream and the apparatus for originating and disseminating information.

 

The primary goal of these pseudo-grassroots efforts is to foster a low cost way to create the illusion of “information” while protecting the advertising base. If there are two or three media outlets in a Community then an e-presence by MainStream Media can be a nice add-on but it is not a replacement for competition or for Real Citizen Media.

 

While we will not speculate on the best way to evolve Real Citizen Media at this time, here are four contextual parameters to consider: 

 

Labor. The only way to economically support the labor- and detail-intensive task of information gathering and dissemination is to harness the interest, insight and ability of volunteers to serve their self-interest.

 

This parameter – the need to vastly expand enlightened self-interest volunteerism – is also a prerequisite for Fundamental Change / improvement in education and many other spheres of Agency, Enterprise and Institution function.

 

Agencies cannot afford to expand service because of resistance by citizens to taxes and fees. Citizens do not trust that the money will be spent wisely.

 

Enterprises will not support these activities unless there is a way to make money. That is why MainStream Media abandoned its role in the Fourth Estate.

 

Institutions can be counted on to push their own narrow interests, as we note later in PART IV with respect to Alternative (“independent”) Media.  (See End Note Thirty-three.)

 

Geographic Orientation. As pointed out in End Note Thirty-two, Real Citizen Media must be geography focused with an outlet / process for every Cluster, Neighborhood ... Subregion and Region. The role of Real Citizen Media beyond the New Urban Region scale may not be badly needed. If well functioning at the New Urban Region scale and below, the views of a Region’s citizens may be well presented by media efforts of Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions and the efforts of coalitions of multi-Regional, continental and inter-continental Institutions.

 

Capital. What will replace advertising / entertainment revenue that now supports MainStream Media? In PART III we suggested that advertising may be on the way out because citizens do not “need” much of the “stuff” – goods and services – and because advertising and public relations efforts are not creditable in the eyes of the vast majority of citizens. Endorsements by a valid cross-section of geographically focused citizens may replace advertisements. What better vehicle for accurate and believable endorsements than unaffiliated, independent citizens of Clusters and Neighborhoods with profiles much like your own?

 

Structure. The most important change will be to turn governance on its head. The place to start is at the Cluster, Neighborhood and Village scales. Instead of a party “leader” in a white house isolated and insulated by thousands of miles (or by many impenetrable “degrees of separation”), the most important governance practitioner to every citizen should be the Dooryard representative on the Cluster Board. The second most important governance practitioner should be the former Dooryard representative who is now the Cluster Rep on the Neighborhood board.

 

This can be accomplished by allocating Agency control to the level of impact with shared control when more than one level is impacted. Shared control was cumbersome in 1775 but modern communications opens the opportunity for sophisticated shared control between levels of governance.

 

Sharpening the Focus: Citizen Understanding of MainStream Media

 

Before citizens will come together to support Real Citizen Media, a critical mass of individuals must be convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that the existing distribution of power among the first three Estates will not provide them the information they need.

 

The second step will be a threshold understanding of “issues that matter” to catalyze the start of the process at the Neighborhood, Village or Community scale. PROPERTY DYNAMICS (PART I of ACTION PROGRAMS) outlines a process to achieve this goal.  Here are some of the flash points of MainStream Media perspective that can ignite citizen action: 

 

Growth Raises All Boats. Mainstream Media incessantly repeats the mantra, "Growth is good!" Especially desirable is growth that results in more and bigger advertising budgets. This perspective is especially transparent in the “community” segment of MainStream Media which tends to support any change that benefits advertising income and growth of the media Enterprise.

 

Concerns for impact and Balance go out the window when a potential advertiser proposes to develop a new or expanded facility. It can be assured that “community” media will support any new chain or Big Box even if it means existing retailers (and advertisers) will be put out of business. We will examine this issue further in the Backgrounder “THE PROBLEM WITH CARS,” forthcoming. (See End Note Thirty-four.)

 

Settlement Pattern Conflicts Ignored. At the Neighborhood-, Village- and Community-scales one of the most important flash points is the failure to recognize the drivers of dysfunctional settlement patterns.

 

Almost without fail, “community” news outlets assign reporters to write stories, welcome letters from readers and spill editorial ink about the horrors of traffic congestion and the demise of the Countryside. At the same time these same media Enterprises print feature stories and distribute weekly and monthly supplements advertising “country properties” and “country living” for urban citizens. These messages glorify the benefits of scattering urban dwellings on lots of  5, 10, 20, 30 acres and larger lots and the scatteration of Jobs / Services and Recreation. Without a fair allocation of location-variable costs, this distribution of urban land uses drives the dysfunctional human settlement pattern that the media Enterprises claim to abhor.

 

These scattered and dysfunctional urban land uses generate new ad revenue not just for septic tank services, large lot lawn moving, Autonomobile service and repair but for all goods and services because scattering J / H / S / R / A results in geographic incoherence and ignorance about what is available where.

 

Mass OverConsumption. The winter holiday season is an excellent opportunity to observe the conflict between citizen interest and MainStream Media interests. The past winter holiday season found many media outlets touting the value of a “green” holiday. As a clear example, a story in a recent “community” weekly focused on reducing the ecological footprint of consumption-driven holidays. It opened the third paragraph (“the money graph”) this way:

 

“Shopping habits is a good place to start. While some presents fill a practical need, many adults in the United States have more than they know what to do with.” (One might add that many not-yet adults of all ages have expectations and desires to acquire far more than they will use or dispose of intelligently.)

 

The rest of the issue – including piles of seasonal sales suffers – was devoted to ads and stories exalting the glories of Mass OverConsumption. The problem is not that MainStream Media does not know what is driving Mass Over Consumption, it is that the media does nothing to put in perspective their support of Mass OverConsumption when it benefits their bottom line. (See End Note Thirty-five.)

 

Regional Media Not Focused on the Region. Many of the most pressing problems facing citizens are “regional” issues:  The Mobility and Access Crisis, the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and the Helter Skelter Crisis, which are problems in their own right and also the drivers of air and water pollution, loss of competitiveness, excess energy consumption, income inequity, etc. are “regional” problems.

These dysfunctions are the primary threats to prosperity, stability and sustainability and can be effectively and efficiently addressed only at the New Urban Region Scale.

That reality does not prompt a conclusion among reporters and editorial writers that there needs to be one level of Agency or a dominate regional Agency. As readers of The Shape of the Future know, there are seven levels of organic structure below the New Urban Region scale, and to be effective, New Urban Region governance must align the level of decision with the level of impact.

 

Most of the Flagship MainStream Media outlets are Regional newspapers. The most prominent ones serve the largest New Urban Regions – New York, Los Angles, Chicago, Washington-Baltimore, Philadelphia, San Francisco Bay and Dallas-Fort Worth.

 

The complete lack of understanding that led to the statement by the WaPo Ombudsperson cited in PART I (“The Post, like most big-city newspapers, is suffering from decreasing revenue and so is doing less...”) is not just typical of Geographic Illiteracy and Locational Obliviousness, it is pervasive.

 

Ignoring Human Settlement Pattern. The front hook indicator of MainStream Media’s failure to provide the information citizens need is the failure to address issues impacting human settlement pattern. News coverage and advertisements perpetuate the myths that maintain dysfunctional settlement patterns and thus the Mobility and Access Crisis, the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and the Helter Skelter Crisis. (For details on these issues see End Note One and columns at www.baconsrebellion.com. Also see again End Note Twenty-four.)

 

It is not possible to overstate the importance of understanding human settlement pattern -- and not just to address current crises. As Chapter 23 (“The Test of Sustainability) of The Shape of the Future documents, citizens cannot achieve a sustainable trajectory for civilization directly, it is too great a leap from the current state of society. The first step is for citizens to understand the need for, and start the evolution toward, functional human settlement patterns. From this new platform a sustainable trajectory is an obtainable objective.

 

Growing Income Inequity. At the same time that many adults in the US of A have “more than they know what to do with” (and many not-yet adults of all ages have expectations to acquire far more than they will know what to do with), a growing number have far too little of what they really need to be part of a prosperous, stable and sustainable society.

 

Far too many are in poor health, are addicted to a range of legal and illegal substances, and / or are trapped by the consequences of prior poor choices. Political candidates get standing ovations for decrying isolated and marginalized components of society.

The critical issue is not that it is humane to feel sorry for the less fortunate. The core reality is that democracy, market economies and open Institutions can only exist if the majority benefits.

Persistent and growing inequity is not a stable condition over the long term, even with dictatorships. The vast majority of citizens must have a reasonable expectation to achieve a quality life and that the distance between the top of the economic food chain and the bottom is not so great that the majority are below water. As is currently evident, even a small number who believe they are not fairly treated can become terrorists, and every generation of new technology gives terrorists more weapons with which to terrorize the majority.

 

Under current circumstances the vast majority of those who are "successful” have no time to consider the future as noted below. In addition, many are focused on Myth-driven goals. (See Backgrounder “A New Metric for Citizen Well Being.”)

 

Growing income inequity is the largest long-term threat to prosperity, stability and sustainability. MainStream Media contributes to counterproductive trends by recycling the campaign promises of Agencies, the advertisements of Enterprises and the calls for donations by Institutions. Citizens are left with no basis for making intelligent decisions.

 

Alternative Media aka "The Independent Press"

 

There are some elements of the alternative / special interest / independent media that are still holding the fort in the Fourth Estate but they need help and the credibility that large numbers of citizens can provide. Some will be of help to citizens in establishing Citizen Media, but not a lot. Why? Because for the most part “the independent press” is really the Institutional Press.

 

In the Conceptual Framework provided by THE ESTATES MATRIX, alternative media is not in the Fourth Estate, it is in the Third Estate and promotes the interests and perspective of the Institutions – especially the leadership of foundations that provide grant money. This is clearly the case for foundations established by Flagship MainStream Media families such as the Center for Citizen Media discussed in End Note Thirty-two.

 

For a quick overview of Alternative Media, a review of two recent issues of Utne Reader is a good place to start. In the November / December 2007 issue Utne lists the “independent” media outlets nominated for its annual awards. In the January / February issue, the magazine names the award winners and publishes examples.

 

We have followed these listings for several years. Utne appears to do a conscientious job of reviewing potential candidates. Further research would be necessary to determine if the selection has been biased by Utne’s social libertarian perspective.

 

Over the past 30 years we have been a professional member of, or a personal friend of, at least half a dozen of the independent media outlets listed by Unte this decade. We have subscribed to over a dozen of the publications and have read over a score of them. Our experience with The World Future Society, which publishes The Futurist, and the American Planning Association / American Institute of Certified Planners, which publishes several publications including Planning, is typical. The Futurist, as one might guess focuses on “the future” but it is not everything about the future, only that which is of interest to those who work for Enterprises and Institutions as professional futurists.

 

Beyond their Institutional perspective and a lack of a coherent geographic focus, Alternative Media with wide circulation hire journalists infected by He Said / She Said reporting. For example, conservation interests get their viewpoint presented but the anti-conservation perspective (“growth is good,” “growth raises all boats,” etc.) is given equal weight.

 

Francesca Grifo of the Union of Concerned Scientists described the He Said / She Said issue in the context of the MainStream Media’s approach to the politically expedient disregard for Science – e.g. the Science of Climate Change – as follows:

 

“With the media, there’s this notion of needing to provide a balanced perspective. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but as some point, the preponderance of opinions and evidence falls on one side. At that point, it becomes a disservice to the public to resurrect the one scientist out of 800 who feels a certain way on an issue.” (See End Note Thirty-six.)

 

Institutional leadership concerned with fund raising may say that coming down hard on MainStream Media will scare away key Institution funders. That may be true but, if it is, then it is an indication of the deplorable state of understanding among those relied upon to support Institutions. We explore this issue in APPENDIX TWO.

 

Beyond the Media

 

THE ESTATES MATRIX presented in PART II illuminates relationships and realities beyond the rise and fall of MainStream Media. THE ESTATES MATRIX reinforces the fact that there is a need for a Fundamental Change in human settlement patterns, and to achieve that, a Fundamental Change in governance structure.

 

As noted earlier, Thomas Jefferson’s coining of the phrase “separation of church and state” in the early 1800s can be logically interpreted to mean that Jefferson assumed continuation of separate Estates.

 

Here is how this might fall out: Under a new Constitution, an Estate exists that is the “state.” (In THE ESTATES MATRIX we term this the First Estate / Agencies.) Second, the logical interpretation of the “church / state” separation idea would be that the “church” once separated from the “state” would remain an Estate that looked out for the spiritual (other worldly) welfare of all citizens. After all, before 1775 the church and mobility were in separate Estates.

 

(In THE ESTATES MATRIX we suggest that due to the demise of the “official” church and the rise of diverse “churches,” the religious / other worldly focus of each church became one of many Institutions that make up the Third Estate.)

 

Finally, it would be logical to assume that if asked, Jefferson would have agreed that a third Estate existed that was made up of the well-to-do / landed gentry and that this Estate would replace the old Second Estate, the Nobility.

 

(In THE ESTATES MATRIX we suggest that these interests became the Second Estate and that this Estate is now dominated by Enterprises. In Jefferson’s era the impact of the Industrial Revolution in the US of A and the rise of the Enterprise to replace the landed gentry, and the very wealthy, would not have been easily foreseen.)

 

Further examination may turn up some clue as to Jefferson’s view of who would look after the interests of the old Third Estate – the Commoners. Our guess is that he might have believed that the well-to-do landowners (gentlemen farmers) and the very wealthy could serve this role. On the other hand, he might have noted the need for a Fourth Estate before Burke did in 1837.

 

We do not speculate about this to put words in Jefferson’s mouth or to suggest we have examined this issue, but to suggest further exploration beyond the scope of this Backgrounder would be useful.

 

What is crystal clear is that a logical construct for the Estate Conversions is far easier in retrospect than it would be from the perspective of someone at the time these Conversions were taking place.

 

What is also clear from THE ESTATES MATRIX is that:

Fundamental Change in governance structure must go beyond reallocating powers among three branches of Agencies.

This Fundamental Change must intelligently address the shortcomings of the 18th century idea that three levels of Agencies within a nation-state are sufficient for functional governance.

 

Even more basic, there must evolve a new context for governance and a broad recognition of the fact that there must be a Balance among Estates to manage civilization on a sustainable trajectory. (See End Note Thirty-seven.)

 

The Rate of Change

 

THE ESTATES MATRIX sheds light on the wide spread confusion over the rate of change in society. This issue was first raised in the section “Time Frame Overview” in PART II. (See End Note Thirty-eight.)

 

In their recent book, "Revolutionary Wealth: How it will be created and how it will change our lives," Alvin and Heidi Toffler explore the speed with which Organizations change. THE ESTATES MATRIX puts this discussion in context. THE ESTATES MATRIX expands Toffler’s analogy. It is not just that “government” (aka, First Estate Agencies) changes more slowly than Second Estate Enterprises. Enterprises change only to achieve more profit. Further, Institutions change only to gain more members and thus power.

 

The rate of change is an issue but the context of change is even more critical. Citizens must create processes within the Fourth Estate that contribute to the evolution of Balance. Providing a context for considering these issues in the Conceptual Framework of Estate Conversions is perhaps the most important application of THE ESTATES MATRIX – a framework for the management of civilization.

 

A Look Ahead: New Realities / New Technology / New Players

 

Before wrapping up this Backgrounder, it is useful to look ahead at what impacts future Estate Conversions might have on society. We earlier referred to the Super Rich, the impact of Robert Reich’s “Supercapitalism,” and how Reich’s perspectives lay out the impact of economic competition beyond the “Winner-Take-All-Society” profiled in Chapter 5 of The Shape of the Future.

 

Some of the topography of the 21st Century is already clear.  Fund Managers (aka, “The Masters of the Universe”) are the new robber barons in a context Reich describes very well. Fund managers recently showed their power at the federal level by killing the tax on their excess profits and obliterating any threat to their off shore tax havens.

 

New Super Institutions are moving to take more and more control of the Third Estate. Bill and Melinda Gates’ foundation will, with Warren Buffet’s money, eclipse Ford, the Rockefeller brothers, Howard Hughes and others who now play a huge role in determining the shape of the future.

 

New technology will also have an impact. Some inventions and innovations will solve problems; some will only fuel Mass OverConsumption. Those goods and services that make the most money in the shortest period of time will be the ones on the front burner. Again Reich puts this reality in perspective. The bottom line is that in the current trajectory, the future is what “they” will pay for. The questions are: Who are “they”? and are “they” the majority or only those at the top of the economic food chain?

 

If “they” are not the majority (and if the “not-theys” are a large enough minority and / or are so aggrieved that they become terrorists) we are back to the case of Agency,  Enterprise or Institution dominance and the dominance by one of those Estates means there will not be a sustainable trajectory for civilization:  Conditions that favor and serve a few (a few “theys”) at the top of the economic food chain is not a formula for prosperity, stability or sustainability. A majority of the citizens being happy and safe is a precondition for democracy, market economies and open institutions.

 

One Last Question

 

Our friend Fahmah Jim Mello asks: What of “The New Alchemists?”

 

Most of the discussion of potential Estate changing forces on the horizon are ideas and innovations that address inorganic relationships: new energy sources (mini nuclear energy plants, fuel cells, cold fusion, cold fission, etc.), robots, nano tools, jet packs, flying cars, weather control – the list has been about the same since the 1939 World Fair.

 

Fahmah Jim is concerned about those who can make changes in the organic structure of cells, organs and organisms. He calls these scientists “the New Alchemists.” Old Alchemists focused on inorganic elements – turning base metals to gold. (See End Note Thirty-nine.)

 

The New Alchemists are the masters of the organic: Manipulating DNA and RNA, catalyzing genetic modifications, cloning animals and most recently creating new organisms. Where do these New Alchemists fit in and how will they use their powers? (See End Note Forty.)

 

Many of the New Alchemists are now employed by Institutions concerned with health care. That is logical because humans fear death, so there is money to be made in solving health problems. However, the primary  problem facing humans is not creating more people or even helping more people live longer.

The core issue is enhancing citizen safety and happiness, and that means less people and less consumption per capita.

If the New Alchemists are the only ones who can find a new anti-virus that prevents the Black Death squared, who will decide who gets the anti-virus?

 

Will the Alchemists follow a different tradition of Institutions in the footsteps of the shamans and priests? Will they work for the Enterprise that is the highest bidder?

 

Citizens need to establish a sustainable trajectory for civilization before these questions must be answered.

 

Four Legs Better Than Three

 

“Four legs is better than three” is not a slogan from George Orwell’s Animal Farm – it is the final reality that can be derived from THE ESTATES MATRIX.  This Backgrounder has referred often to a “Four Legged Stool.” Over hundreds of thousands, in fact millions, of years three Estates evolved to their status in 1302. In the ensuing 535 years Modern Science, the Reformation, the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution transformed human civilization to the point that a fourth Estate emerged.

When the three Estates became four Estates, Balance became more important as illustrated by the analogy of the stability of a three-legged stool vs the stability of a four-legged stool.

When MainStream Media abandoned the Fourth Estate and decamped to the Second Estate, a vacuum was created. Profitability of the Enterprises that own MainStream Media now requires more people and more consumption of goods and services.

The goal of citizens should be happiness and safety, not ever-increasing consumption.

The future of civilization depends on fewer people, less consumption per capita and thus a smaller ecological footprint. Many still have the mindset of the pre first Millennium Church – the faith with the most souls wins.

 

Fundamental Change in human settlement patterns and Fundamental Change in governance structure is essential but there must also be Balance among the Estates. A sustainable trajectory for civilization requires that over time there be:

  • Fewer citizens

  • Each consuming less goods and services

  • Achieving access and mobility with less travel over shorter distances

  • Achieving affordable and accessible housing with a smaller ecological footprint  

The net result will be less impact on the environment and more freedom to adjust to changes such as:

  • Asteroids

  • New viruses

  • Smith’s Gas Cloud

  • Global Climate Change, sea level change, etc.

There appear to be two valid choices:

  1. A three-legged stool pitting Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions against one another with citizens again becoming pawns. For the present citizens will have votes, buying power and memberships but no Estate, as was the case before 1775, or

  1. A four-legged stool with citizens creating democratic processes to replace MainStream Media’s role in the Fourth Estate. These processes will generate new ways to inform citizens so citizens (individuals and Households) can make intelligent decisions impacting their self-interest.

Where to from here?

 

That is a question that only well informed citizens can answer.

 

There is one haunting question: Will the genes that got humans to this point prevent them from obtaining a sustainable trajectory for society? Did someone say New Alchemists? We will examine the issue of Genetic Proclivity in the forthcoming Backgrounder, “THE PROBLEM WITH CARS.”

 

-- January 15, 2008

 

Postscript: Feedback to Date

 

The feedback from readers of PARTs I, II and III of The Estates Matrix has come in two forms: generally positive and supportive, and snarky.

 

The generally positive and supportive comments point out areas that require refinement, such as the insertion of additional columns in THE ESTATES MATRIX to better illustrate the Estates Conversions.

 

One journalist suggested that much of the problem with Vocabulary stems from adoption of a standard dictionary / source that records all possible meanings of any given word so that, by design, many words are confusing. This is the opposite of evolving clearly defined words and phrases and a listing of Core Confusing Words.

 

The snarky comments come in two forms:

  • Denizens of the old Fourth Estate want to protect their turf. They tend to blame the demise of MainStream Media on “greed” of the media owners. As we point out in PART III that is as silly as trying to teach a dog not to hunt. Reich does a nice job of dismissing greed as the villain in the domination by Enterprises in "Supercapitalism."

  • The second group is those besotted by the myths rooted in Geographic Illiteracy and Spacial Obliviousness. These myths include The Private Vehicle Mobility Myth, The Big Yard Myth and three supporting Myths that will be the subject of a future column: The More Places Myth, the Changes in Human Settlement Patterns Take Forever Myth and the Euro Sprawl Myth.

Postscript: Some of Our Best Friends

 

Many who work for MainStream Media believe they have an obligation to uphold the mission of Fourth Estate “journalism,” and that they are doing the best they can do. That is why we have explored THE ESTATES MATRIX. We did not come easily to our current views of MainStream Media. We can say without fear of contradiction that “some of our best friends are journalists.” We have a substantial history of working closely and productively with print and electronic media over the past four decades.  (See End Note Forty-one.)

 

When EMR started working primarily on human settlement pattern issues 42 years ago, print and electronic media were profitable Enterprises. Many media outlets could still afford to follow the honorable dictates of “journalistic standards” and play the role the Fourth Estate had earned over the past 500 years. As noted in PART I., MainStream Media is now hemorrhaging money at an increasing rate and there is no sign that current trends will change.

 

Most print media outlets that claim to provide all the community and regional news “that is fit to print” are in deep trouble with owners and stockholders. Many segments of the Alternative Media are also in trouble.

 

Electronic media is supported by “entertainment.” “News” is a loss leader or a forum to advocate an owners political agenda – Moon, Murdoch, et. al. – in addition to promoting Mass OverConsumption.

 

The only full service print media outlets that are not in financial trouble are small dailies and weeklies that serve isolated urban agglomerations in Urban Support Regions (aka, small Metropolitan Statistical Areas / Micropolitan Areas)  in places like Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana.

 

With rampant cutthroat competition, special interest ownership, and claims of “Media Bias” from all sides, it is not reasonable to expect Enterprise-owned MainStream Media to act any differently than they do.

 

Postscript: Landcasterization of Media

 

We noted the beginning of the end of MainStream Media almost three decades ago. There is a Blog post on this topic vis a vis the Rail-to-Dulles issue titled “Landcasterated Media” (12 March 2007).

 

Landcasterated Media is the phrase used to describe the practice of starting promising journalists on the “local” (aka, municipal, Beta Community) beat and then promoting them to state, national and international coverage. The practice is named for John Lancaster whom we recall to be the first WaPo “metro” writer who was assigned specifically to “transportation.”    Lancaster became conversant with the transportation / settlement pattern connection and effectively communicated this understanding  before he was “promoted” to cover Maryland state government news from Annapolis. When last heard from Lancaster was reporting from Timbuktu.

 

The Bacon’s Rebellion post about Lancaster was followed up by a column (“All Aboard,” 16 April 2007) about issues that should have been explored by WaPo but were not because Alec McGillis, the reporter who had covered this issue, was “promoted” to national political coverage. Early in the election cycle, Alec was following Mitt Romney around as he raised money in Idaho. Most recently he has been co-authoring stories on New Hampshire.

 

The promotion and redeployment policies of WaPo and other major news outlets ensures that stories of Regional – and especially of Community, Village and Neighborhood – importance are given second-rate coverage. This includes most stories related to human settlement patterns.

 

Postscript: Publishers Call the Shots on Coverage

 

Our first direct encounter with the impact of the current reality was in the late 90s when the Secretary of the Smithsonian asked EMR to address a seminar that the Secretary hosted on the future of the National Capital Subregion. Noting that the publisher of WaPo was in the audience, EMR outlined areas that the MainStream Media needed to do more effectively – like vetting the autonomobile and housing ads, creating special editions based on Beta Communities, not on advertiser target areas or political borders, stopping the Lancasterization of staff and other specifics. (See End Note Forty-two.)

 

As EMR was wrapping up his presentation, the publisher made a show of getting up and walking out, stopping only to whisper to a senior editor who was also in the audience. From that day forward EMR saw a sharp decline in his access to editors and reporters at WaPo. Since then new reporters have found their way to S/P offices via recommendations from those outside the WaPo command and control structure.

 

Postscript: Current Reality

 

Today with losses mounting at almost every MainStream Medial outlet, every cub reporter knows if she files a story critical of the Business-As-Usual approach to “news” – especially if it impacts advertisers – she is cutting her own throat. They do not need to be told by an editor or a grey-beard reporter to stick to “He Said / She Said,” even if the question of where the general public interest lies is crystal clear. It should be noted that litigation also plays a role in this issue and Enterprises do not like to risk being sued just to get out solid information.

 

The journalistic ideal of a wall between the business side and the editorial side of MainStream Media outlets is gone. To pretend the pre-80s condition exists is to play the fool.

 


 

End Notes

 

(29). This list represents a cross section of important recent trends in governance. Most of these countries have some tradition of democratic governance; all have rich resources, strong economies or enjoy a pivotal geo-political position. China, India and Indonesia could be added due to their size. If one wants to include the really bad apples the list would include Ethiopia, Eritrea, Burma, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Syria, Iran, North Korea and others including emeriti such as Libya, Egypt -- the list goes on. It is interesting to note that when a bad apple list is published on the Internet and opened to additional candidates, the most frequently added name is George W. Bush, much to the horror of those who voted for him and even those who voted against him in 2000 and 2004.

 

(30). NB: This list could also go on for pages and does not include those who partisans of the Elephant Clan or the Donkey Clan might put at the top of the list, only those that citizens in general find unqualified to serve as dog catchers or meter readers.

 

(31). See Feldman, Richard “A Gun Lobbyist’s Lament: The NRA’s Main Target? Its Members Checkbooks,” in WaPo, 16 December, 2007, B-3.   

 

(32). While rewriting PART IV, we Googled “Citizen Media” and found that the term is already in wide use in some circles. There is even an Institution called Center for Citizen Media, part of the Knight Citizen News Network (“Helping citizens and journalists amplify community news”). The Knight family is one of the First Families of Journalism. The website lists as “partners” the Graduate School of Journalism at the University of California, Berkeley and the Berkman Center for Internet & Society at the Harvard Law School. The Center has established itself as a sophisticated resource for “Citizen Journalism” aka, Blogging.

 

A good place to come to grips with the scope of the Center’s perspective is “Principles of Citizen Journalism.” Accuracy, thoroughness, fairness, transparency and independence are the Center's key objectives. One cannot go wrong there.

 

Where citizens can go wrong is that the Center assumes that MainStream Journalism is doing its job and that citizens and journalists can be assisted in “amplifying community news.” The Center provides no indication of how citizens' media is supported because, after all, MainStream Media wants the circulation and advertising revenue to support “the professionals.” (More on this topic later in this Backgrounder.)

 

The other weak spot is that there is no guidance for establishing geographic identity. In other words Geographic Illiteracy and Spacial Obliviousness are in control of "citizen media."     

 

(33). Of course there must be more functional human settlement patterns so that all citizens are not RHTCs and have the time to volunteer.   

 

(34). For example, when a local weekly “covers” the debate on a new Big Box, they do not publicize the existence of the Big Box Evaluator created by the Orton Family Foundation which allows citizens to plug in the numbers and calculate the impact of a new Big Box: http://www.bigboxevaluator.org.

 

(35). Alm, Kelly. “Christmas creates mountains of waste: But holiday recycling is growing,” Fauquier Times Democrat, 19 December, 2007. The “Weekend” flier by the same paper had a column titled “Recycle your Holiday cheer” by Trish Either with a similar message.   

 

(36). “Pseudo-Science Debunked: How to separate fact from political fiction,” Interview by Danielle Maestretti, Utne Reader, Nov - Dec 2007, page 14.

 

(37). We raise this issue in the Backgrounder “A New Metric for Citizen Well Being,” 10 December 2006. There is a huge overburden of romanticized fluff with respect to the evolution and context of adopting the U.S. of A Constitution. In a book by Woody Holton (“Unruly Americans and the Origins of the Constitution”) it is suggested that a driving force behind the drafting of the Constitution was an intent to limit democracy and protect investors. See review by Professor Pauline Maier in WaPo Book World 18 November 2007, page 5 (“The Framers’ Real Motives: A provocative claim that the Constitution was designed to limit democracy and protect investors.”) In the context of THE ESTATES MATRIX, one could say the Founding Fathers were really interested in a weak First Estate, a strong Second Estate and forget the Fourth Estate.

   

(38). This is another place that the recent book "Supercapitalism" by Robert Reich provides important insights. Based on Reich’s chronological perspective, two columns might be added to THE ESTATES MATRIX. One for 1870 and one for 1910. These two additional columns could provide information that would assist in better understanding the Estate Conversions.      

 

(39). Turning straw – organic mater – into to gold – inorganic matter – was always just a fairy tale. In recent stages of the Industrial Revolution, contemporary “Old Alchemists” have figured out how create new inorganic atoms but it is still far cheaper to mine gold than to make it. That is true for most inorganic elements and compounds except diamonds, and that is another story.   

 

(40). Jim Mello should know, he is not just a knowledgeable organic farmer but father of one of the New Alchemists. Jim and Sally’s son Craig won the 2006 Nobel Prize for Medicine for figuring out how to turn off and on genes in DNA / RNA. In addition, Fahmah Jim is an Ivy League-educated scientist who served as Associate Director of the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History. 

 

(41). In the 50s EMR’s first paying job was as local reporter for Pulitzer Prize winning paper. EMR became a lifelong friend of the publisher and editor. Long after EMR left Montana, he helped this publisher explore important environmental- and energy-related issues impacting the Flathead Valley and the Northern Rocky Mountain Urban Support Region.

 

In the 60s EMR established a strong planner / reporter relationship with a crusading journalist and over the past 40 years they have helped each other make many changes in the fields of education, planning and politics.

 

In the 70s EMR helped print an electronic media report on Planned New Communities and the transportation / human settlement pattern connection. He established relationships with reporters and editors in the Washington- Baltimore, Atlanta, New Orleans, New York and other New Urban Regions.

 

In the 80s EMR became an advisor, investor and member of the management team of an Enterprise that grew during his involvement from a single start-up to a chain of weekly papers serving Community-scale and Village-scale urban agglomerations.   

 

(42). While EMR was an officer in the Fairfax Committee of 100, we presented WaPo editors with a long list of ways to improve media coverage of settlement pattern issues and this work informed the recommendations at the Secretary’s seminar.

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Estates Matrix: 700 Years of Profound Transformations and Estate Conversions

 

On the road to contemporary civilization, morphing estates have fundamentally changed the management of society. One recent conversion is the MainStream Media's abandoning of its fourth estate responsibilities.

 

This Backgrounder is presented in four Parts:

 

I. The Morphed Estate

 

II. The Estates Matrix

 

III.  The Rise and Fall of Journalism

 

IV. The Road Ahead

 


 

Ed Risse and his wife Linda live inside the "Clear Edge" of the "urban enclave" known as Warrenton, a municipality in the Countryside near the edge of the Washington-Baltimore "New Urban Region."

 

Mr. Risse, the principal of

SYNERGY/Planning, Inc., can be contacted at spirisse@aol.com.

 

Read his profile here.