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The
great Clinton recovery in new Hampshire made a lot
of people happy around the country.
Not
least among them were Virginia Republicans, a
bunch who are always on the lookout for good news,
no matter what its source. They are happy
because Sen. Clinton's New Hampshire turn-around
put new life, and fresh uncertainty, into the
Democratic contest. That's reason enough on its
own for most to celebrate, no matter where they
are: Instead of an Obama coronation, which for a
day or so seemed to be possible, the leading
Democratic candidates will swipe, slash and weep
at each other, at least through Super Tuesday.
But
think about Virginia Republicans for a second. Why
would they be happy? For one, it means that Bill Bolling's
expressed fear of a steam-rolling Obama candidacy heading
for Virginia (and possibly the general election
ballot in November) doesn't appear as likely. For
the moment.
Far
better for the GOP, locally and nationally, to
have Sen. Clinton energized as she stumps across
the nation. Some of them are counting (read:
praying) that she will win the nomination and thus
give them a reason, a hope, a shot at making gains
in November.
One
Republican in particular who ought to have enjoyed
the returns is Jim Gilmore.
Very
early on, Gilmore raised the specter of Hillary
Clinton at the top of the ticket, and he promptly
lashed Mark Warner to her side. No matter that the
two are probably not in sync on a host of
issues... it's the sort of image and tag line that
Gilmore and others believe could help put him over
the top in November (assuming he withstands the
challenge from Bob Marshall for the nomination).
Virginia
Republicans also have to take a small amount of
glee in the fact that Governor Kaine has lashed
himself to the Obama campaign’s mast,
campaigning for him in the early primary states
and even generating some talk (which he disavows)
that he could be in the running for the number two
slot on an Obama ticket. If Obama stumbles, Kaine
stumbles, and any misstep he makes is good for a
grin around the GOP water cooler.
Another
grin inducer is watching the ever-cagey Doug
Wilder make a slip. He joined the Obama bandwagon,
too – after it started rolling in Iowa, but
before it derailed in New Hampshire. Republicans
sometimes have a soft spot for the current
Richmond mayor because he can sometimes be counted
on to tweak (or worse) his fellow Democrats.
However, he also tends to back winners in this
state, so seeing him stumble away from home has to
be somewhat pleasing.
Two
Virginia Republicans who might have mixed emotions
are Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell. It’s no
secret each is already campaigning for the
party’s gubernatorial nomination. And while each
is, undoubtedly, relieved that George Allen has
decided not to make a nostalgic run for the
Executive Mansion, each may have a secret desire
to see either Obama or Clinton win the White House
in November. Why? History, of course. Virginia has
a tendency to elected governors of the party
opposite that which wins the White House. A
Democratic victory nationally could mean one of
them has a better shot at winning in 2009.
But
not all Virginia Republicans are pleased to see
the most recent turn in the presidential race. One
who might be frowning is Tom Davis. While his
intentions of running for another House term
remain unclear, he cannot be pleased with the
possibility of either Obama or Clinton appearing
on the ballot. Either one could draw enough
Democratic voters to the polls to send Leslie
Byrne back to Congress, completing the electoral
circle both for her and for Davis. In
the broader national picture, Republicans have to
be tickled to see Clinton come back from the
(media-induced) brink. In her, they see all their
bogeymen wrapped in single pantsuit. The wretched
Clinton years... Whitewater... impeachment...
Monica... the travel office... Hillarycare... a
list of horribles that would give even Dracula
nightmares.
Clinton
gives Republicans the opportunity to unleash these
petty hatreds once more. But even more
importantly, she offers them the opportunity to
keep their feuding social and economic wings
firmly attached to the party's main body.
But is that enough? Probably not. Hatred and
disgust can only take a candidate so far (just ask
John Kerry's most ardent supporters). It's
critical that the GOP put forward the strongest
nominee it can -- one that unites the factions,
energizes the middle and reaches out to
independents, too.
That's
asking a lot of any Republican this side of Ronald
Reagan. Romney sold himself as that candidate, but
so far, voters aren't buying. Rudy hasn't played
much in the primaries yet, so his strength is
untested. Huckabee at least has the support of
Iowa evangelicals, but whether he has anyone
else's support is an open question. McCain is the
default choice right now, but he has made a career
out of feuding with various wings of the party.
Fred
Thompson has all but evaporated. He's staking it
all on South Carolina, which is as an incredibly
risky thing to do, let alone announce. If he
finishes poorly there, he's done. And what of the
great Internet hope, Ron Paul? He's imploding
under the dual pressures of a paper-thin campaign
staff and the recent, widespread revelations that
a newsletter published under his name in the 1990s
contained a raft of racist screeds. The fringe
will stick with him to the end. But whatever
influence he might have hoped to exert on the
eventual nominee or the party platform has
vanished.
So
where is the strong candidate in this motley
field? I can't say. They all have their strengths,
but none has that singular spark essential to
victory. Of course, I said the same thing about
George Bush (ah, Steve Forbes... what could have
been!). So for a day or so, Republicans in
Virginia and elsewhere can rejoice. The woman they
love to hate is going to be around for a while.
But they had best enjoy the laughs and sunshine
while they can, because their own problems remain
as vexing, and as ominous, as ever.
--
January 14, 2008
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