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A
few weeks back Cornell economist Robert Frank took
to the pages of the New
York Times to address what he sees as the
difficulty the nation faces in discussing taxes,
and specifically, tax increases. While Frank’s
focus was on the national discussion, some of the
same difficulties with language are evident in
Virginia, where those who oppose new or higher
taxes enjoy any number of nicknames, ranging from
the comparatively mild “anti-taxer,” to the
more colorful “flat-earther.”
Those
who favor higher taxes, by contrast, lack such
endearing nicknames. The closest they come to
having a handle is “moderate.” Or perhaps
“sensible.” Or oddly, “fiscally
responsible.”
Now
compare the two lists. Would the average taxpayer
rather listen to the flat-earther or the sensible
moderate?
Let’s
look at some other examples. Frank, who opts for
the “anti-taxer” nickname, believes that this
nefarious group has effectively poisoned the
rhetorical well, reducing the debate on taxation
to bumper sticker slogans that are meant to
obscure and mislead. The result is that major tax
hikes, at least nationally, are unknown, and as
such, America is "...sliding toward
second-class status in the world economy."
There
are grains of truth to this. Republican office
seekers often sign the Americans for Tax Reform pledge
not to raise income taxes (though other forms of
taxation are acceptable). ATR and its founder,
Grover Norquist, have been somewhat successful in
enforcing this pledge. In the process, Norquist
and others have stripped most of the nuance from
any debate over taxes. As Frank notes:
In
short, realistic proposals for solving our budget
problems must include higher revenue. But unless
political leaders can develop strategies for
dealing with the powerful anti-tax rhetoric that
has sunk similar proposals in the past, the
impasse will continue.
There
are strategies for dealing with the all-powerful
anti-tax rhetoric. And many of them have been
developed right here in Virginia. Mark Warner
proved they existed in 2004, when, with the
compliance of the then-Republican controlled
Senate, he framed tax hikes as tax reform.
Ordinarily, this approach, alone, would not have
succeeded. But coupling the need for new revenue
with a theoretical threat to Virginia’s AAA bond
rating made some on the Republican side pay heed.
But
even then, bond ratings are esoteric things. So,
the case was further bolstered by the clever
addition of where that additional tax money would
go – schools, police, social services -- the
sorts of programs that reach a far broader
cross-section of the electorate than mere tax
reform ever could.
But
Warner was even more fortunate in that his tax
hike was made to look positively miserly compared
to that proposed by then Senate Finance Committee
Chair John Chichester. When a Democrat looking for
additional revenue is trumped by a Republican
seeking even more, it’s exceedingly difficult
for anti-taxers to maneuver. They can stand their
ground, as they did for some time, or they can
fold. And in the end, they folded, not wishing to
look like they were the ones who stood against
kids, cops and the poor (and the bond traders).
This
2004 tax hike episode was a model for how to
change the debate over taxes in favor of the
pro-tax side. The ripples are still being felt in
Virginia politics, as Republicans continue to give
ground on taxation (though under the guise of fees
or new taxing districts). And the architect of the
new tax language, Mark Warner, is the front-runner
to replace John Warner in the U.S. Senate.
But
that does not necessarily mean the new language
has become permanent. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine is not
as adept at employing Warner’s dictionary, and
has suffered some minor setbacks. He was unable to
get a package of tax hikes specifically for roads
through the legislature (but still saw the GOP
plump for more revenue by other means). He has
stood by the abusive driver fees (which may be
axed in the next session), prefers to retain the
additional $1 fee for car registration (which
Tommy Norment has backed away from after initially
supporting the idea) and has proposed hiking the
driver’s license fee in his next budget (the
fate of which will be decided soon).
Part
of the Governor’s difficulty has been the
fallout from the 2004 tax fight. Republicans were
to some degree chastened by the experience. They
are not eager to repeat the experience and may be
even less so after this November’s elections.
But another, and more serious, problem for the
governor, is his own language. As Jeff Schapiro reported:
Having
struggled with Republicans since taking office
nearly two years ago, Kaine knows what he's up
against.
"I
think the stakes for them are to show that they
want to work in a cooperative way or do they
want to be marginalized as being bomb-
throwers," Kaine said.
He
added that some Republicans -- bowing to the
party's dominant conservative wing -- are
"searching to create issues of division
rather than coming together and solve
problems."
Unlike
his predecessor, who aggressively courted
Republicans, Kaine uses language that belittles
the other side. That's hardly a strategem for
winning GOP cooperation. Kaine is even pushing
away Republicans who supported Warner’s tax
hikes in 2004. On his plan for tapping $180
million in transportation money for other budget
items, for instance, Kaine called the criticism of
Del. Joe May and others “goofy.”
As
for his borrowing the maximum amount from the
rainy day fund, the famously moderate Sen. Walter
Stosch, R-Henrico, believes the Governor is
crossing the line: "It is not a modest
withdrawal," he said. "It is a
raid."
What
this early exchange of words shows is that the tax
rhetoric Mark Warner employed in 2004 is either
being forgotten or ignored by his successor. That
doesn’t mean the anti-taxers are calling the
tune once again (if they ever really did). What it
does show is that the language of higher taxes
depends as much on the personalities as it does on
the words. And right now, the personalities are
more interested in scoring points than in coming
together, moving forward, or whatever else their
bumper stickers say.
--
December 27, 2007
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