For
a few days in late November, it looked as though
Virginia Republicans might have to make a choice.
Former
Governor Jim Gilmore had already declared his
candidacy for the Senate seat being vacated by
John Warner. But his declaration failed to
generate widespread excitement. If anything, it
re-opened some old wounds and caused some (including
me) to speculate on who else might decide to
exploit Gilmore’s low-wattage reception and
challenge him for the nomination.
And
in late November, it looked like the one person
who might just do it was Del. Chris Saxman.
I
interviewed Saxman before Thanksgiving, asking him
about his possible candidacy and what he hoped to
achieve as a U.S. Senator. His answers convinced
me that he was, indeed, running. I was wrong.
At
the RPV “Advance,” he pulled a Cincinnatus,
and declined to run (and thereby enhancing his
reputation). Thus, unless the group which is
rather nonchalantly courting retired Marine
general Peter Pace makes sudden headway in its
effort, the Republican candidate is set.
And
that’s too bad, because if any group needed to
have a choice of nominees, it’s the GOP. Jim
Gilmore is a proven winner – or at least he was
in the last century. There’s no questioning his
toughness or his determination. There ought to be
no doubt that he will contest every city and
county in Virginia.
But
what about his message? If their recent electoral
setbacks have taught the GOP nothing else, it is
that the message matters as much as a tightly run
campaign. And in many ways, the two are
inseparable.
So
far, Gilmore’s message is underwhelming. At the
“Advance,” Gilmore worked very hard to tie
Mark Warner to Hillary Clinton and spoke a great
deal about his proven ability to win in every part
of the state, including Northern Virginia. This
approach is fraught with peril.
Its
greatest weakness is the assumption that Mrs.
Clinton will be the Democratic presidential
nominee. That is no longer a given. If the
Democrats tap Sen. Barack Obama, who has
positioned himself as a candidate of new ideas and
approaches, then a crucial Gilmore talking point
evaporates.
Moreover,
Mark Warner, for all his faults, has worked
tirelessly to cultivate an image that is as far
from the national Democratic model as possible. If
anything, Warner has positioned himself as a sort
of soft country club Republican, focusing on
competence, moderation, accommodation and results.
There
is also the entrenched media story line that
Warner is unbeatable. He is so popular, so
competent, and so doggone nice, that there’s no
way the crabbed, nasty, failed Gilmore could ever
possibly beat him. Nothing short of a Gilmore
victory will be able to break this narrative.
But
to have that chance, Gilmore would be well advised
to listen to the remarks of the man who declined
to challenge him – Chris Saxman.
In
his address to the crowd at the “Advance,”
Saxman struck notes that still resonate with a lot
of voters – including those who live in that
vast GOP wasteland of Northern Virginia:
Our
government is taking more control of our daily
lives, taking more of the money we earn and giving
us less in return.
The
only way to put government back in its proper role
is for the Republican Party to become a first-rate
political force once again. To do this we must
rededicate ourselves to being the Party of growth
and opportunity. At the same time, there can be no
doubt that our Party is the protector of the
individual - whether that individual is in the
womb of her mother, preparing his children for
school or wiping the sweat off of his brow after
putting in a full day of work.
Our
Party is at our best when we are pointing out that
individuals made this country great, not the
federal government. Just look at any point in our
nation's history; whenever individuals were given
control to decide their own future and enjoy the
rewards of their success then our nation became
more energized, prosperous, forward- looking and
free.
While
it’s easy to quibble with some of the word
choices -- political parties can protect people?
Really? Does the F.E.C. know about this? -- the
general thrust of individual responsibility,
freedom, and prosperity is an old and successful
standard. These are the values that ought to form
the core of any Republican candidate’s message,
but especially so for a candidate like Jim
Gilmore.
And
in a contest where Mark Warner has already tried
to claim the nonpartisan ground, they are the sort
of ideas that force even the most accommodationist
of candidates to respond.
Then
there was something else Saxman said, this time in
response to a question I asked him a few weeks ago
about what his campaign issues would be if he
became the Senate nominee:
For
far too long, politicians have gone around telling
people what the politicians want to do. I
think it is time for the pollsters, consultants to
stand down for awhile and let candidates listen to
the people. Then, the eventual winner will be able
to represent the people of Virginia TO the federal
government instead of representing the federal
government to the people.
It
is an important but necessary distinction. Unless
you sit down at the kitchen tables of Virginia and
really discuss the issues that impact people on a
daily basis, you will always be distant from the
reality of their lives. We need politicians to
listen for a change so that a change can be made.
There’s
recent precedent for this approach – Jim
Webb’s Senate campaign. Early on, Webb sat down
with people at their kitchen tables and talked
about issues. It was a tactic as much as anything
else, but it also paid long-term dividends. And
while it may not be easy for some to imagine Jim
Gilmore sitting across the dining room table from
them talking about property taxes, it’s an
approach that has the potential to change his
image and strengthen his message at the same time.
Perhaps
nothing Gilmore does or says will change the image
some already have of him. Every politician carries
this baggage, including Mark Warner. More’s the
pity, then, that neither party is seriously
entertaining alternative candidates.
And
all the more reason for someone like Jim Gilmore
to borrow a few pages from the Republican
alternative who stayed home.
--
December 10, 2007
|