One Man's Trash

Norman Leahy


 

Heed the Guy Who Stayed Home

 

Jim Gilmore has a near-lock on the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate next year. But he would be wise to listen to Chris Saxman, the up-and-comer who chose not to challenge him.


 

For a few days in late November, it looked as though Virginia Republicans might have to make a choice.

 

Former Governor Jim Gilmore had already declared his candidacy for the Senate seat being vacated by John Warner. But his declaration failed to generate widespread excitement. If anything, it re-opened some old wounds and caused some (including me) to speculate on who else might decide to exploit Gilmore’s low-wattage reception and challenge him for the nomination.

 

And in late November, it looked like the one person who might just do it was Del. Chris Saxman.  

 

I interviewed Saxman before Thanksgiving, asking him about his possible candidacy and what he hoped to achieve as a U.S. Senator. His answers convinced me that he was, indeed, running. I was wrong.

 

At the RPV “Advance,” he pulled a Cincinnatus, and declined to run (and thereby enhancing his reputation). Thus, unless the group which is rather nonchalantly courting retired Marine general Peter Pace makes sudden headway in its effort, the Republican candidate is set. 

 

And that’s too bad, because if any group needed to have a choice of nominees, it’s the GOP. Jim Gilmore is a proven winner – or at least he was in the last century. There’s no questioning his toughness or his determination. There ought to be no doubt that he will contest every city and county in Virginia.

 

But what about his message? If their recent electoral setbacks have taught the GOP nothing else, it is that the message matters as much as a tightly run campaign. And in many ways, the two are inseparable.

 

So far, Gilmore’s message is underwhelming. At the “Advance,” Gilmore worked very hard to tie Mark Warner to Hillary Clinton and spoke a great deal about his proven ability to win in every part of the state, including Northern Virginia. This approach is fraught with peril.

 

Its greatest weakness is the assumption that Mrs. Clinton will be the Democratic presidential nominee. That is no longer a given. If the Democrats tap Sen. Barack Obama, who has positioned himself as a candidate of new ideas and approaches, then a crucial Gilmore talking point evaporates.

 

Moreover, Mark Warner, for all his faults, has worked tirelessly to cultivate an image that is as far from the national Democratic model as possible. If anything, Warner has positioned himself as a sort of soft country club Republican, focusing on competence, moderation, accommodation and results.

 

There is also the entrenched media story line that Warner is unbeatable. He is so popular, so competent, and so doggone nice, that there’s no way the crabbed, nasty, failed Gilmore could ever possibly beat him. Nothing short of a Gilmore victory will be able to break this narrative.

 

But to have that chance, Gilmore would be well advised to listen to the remarks of the man who declined to challenge him – Chris Saxman.

 

In his address to the crowd at the “Advance,” Saxman struck notes that still resonate with a lot of voters – including those who live in that vast GOP wasteland of Northern Virginia:

Our government is taking more control of our daily lives, taking more of the money we earn and giving us less in return.

 

The only way to put government back in its proper role is for the Republican Party to become a first-rate political force once again. To do this we must rededicate ourselves to being the Party of growth and opportunity. At the same time, there can be no doubt that our Party is the protector of the individual - whether that individual is in the womb of her mother, preparing his children for school or wiping the sweat off of his brow after putting in a full day of work.

 

Our Party is at our best when we are pointing out that individuals made this country great, not the federal government. Just look at any point in our nation's history; whenever individuals were given control to decide their own future and enjoy the rewards of their success then our nation became more energized, prosperous, forward- looking and free.

While it’s easy to quibble with some of the word choices -- political parties can protect people? Really? Does the F.E.C. know about this? -- the general thrust of individual responsibility, freedom, and prosperity is an old and successful standard. These are the values that ought to form the core of any Republican candidate’s message, but especially so for a candidate like Jim Gilmore.  

 

And in a contest where Mark Warner has already tried to claim the nonpartisan ground, they are the sort of ideas that force even the most accommodationist of candidates to respond.

 

Then there was something else Saxman said, this time in response to a question I asked him a few weeks ago about what his campaign issues would be if he became the Senate nominee:

For far too long, politicians have gone around telling people what the politicians want to  do. I think it is time for the pollsters, consultants to stand down for awhile and let candidates listen to the people. Then, the eventual winner will be able to represent the people of Virginia TO the federal government instead of representing the federal government to the people.

 

It is an important but necessary distinction. Unless you sit down at the kitchen tables of Virginia and really discuss the issues that impact people on a daily basis, you will always be distant from the reality of their lives. We need politicians to listen for a change so that a change can be made.

There’s recent precedent for this approach – Jim Webb’s Senate campaign. Early on, Webb sat down with people at their kitchen tables and talked about issues. It was a tactic as much as anything else, but it also paid long-term dividends. And while it may not be easy for some to imagine Jim Gilmore sitting across the dining room table from them talking about property taxes, it’s an approach that has the potential to change his image and strengthen his message at the same time.

 

Perhaps nothing Gilmore does or says will change the image some already have of him. Every politician carries this baggage, including Mark Warner. More’s the pity, then, that neither party is seriously entertaining alternative candidates.

 

And all the more reason for someone like Jim Gilmore to borrow a few pages from the Republican alternative who stayed home.

 

-- December 10, 2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact info

 

Norman Leahy, a senior copywriter at a Richmond-area marketing agency, lives in the leafy suburbs of Henrico County. 

 

Read his profile here.

 

Contact:

   normanomt[at]

      hotmail.com