|
The
votes are in from last week’s elections. And the
winners are…
…well,
that depends. The Democrats seized control of the
Senate and made gains in the House. Their
electoral momentum has at least some of them
positively giddy. Of course, now they have to
follow up those gains and actually show results.
If
the Dems' congressional counterparts are any
indication of what those results might be, then
the more ardent among the Democratic faithful
would be well advised to look into anger
management classes. And chief among them would be
Gov. Timothy M. Kaine.
Remember,
Tim: Governors come and go, but legislators stick
around. And the closer you come to the end of your
term, the less inclined they are to burnish your
legacy (especially if it puts their own chances of
survival at risk. Ask Jim Gilmore to fill
you in).
And
now what of the losers? After all, that’s where
the real fun is. The conventional wisdom for
Republicans has quickly hardened. One of its more
interesting expressions
comes from my fellow NBC 12 blogger, Paul Goldman.
Of course, Paul is not a Republican, so some will
dismiss his beliefs out of hand. That’s a
mistake, because he delivers both the CW and its
antidote. First, the CW:
Still,
demographics, as they say, is destiny and in that
regard, changes in NOVA are making it hard for
even the best of Republicans to win with what
is perceived as the failed message of yesterday. By
this time next year, Northern Virginia will have
gone overwhelmingly for Democratic Senate nominee Mark
Warner and whomever the Democrats nominate for
President.
In
this regard the Virginia Republican Party may feel
their candidates are getting a bad rap, and this
image of them in NOVA of being an intolerant
narrow-minded party blinded to the practical needs
of a growing state by an obsession with making
purity more important than performance, is
unwarranted.
Yet
there is an iron law of politics that must always
be observed: Don't blame the customer. If such an
image is what key swing voters believe, then you
either deal with it, or you lose with it. Your
choice.
There
is some truth here, as image and messaging
continues to be, as it has always been, critical
to a party's success (more on those items later).
But there are some holes in this line of thinking,
too. Let’s just take a quick walk through some
of the results to see if we can find them…
Sen.
Jay O'Brien, a conservative, is narrowly beaten.
At the margins, his defeat could be attributed to
the cloud of uncertainty and controversy that
dogged the Faisal Gill candidacy for delegate in
Prince William County (portions of which
overlapped O’Brien’s Senate district). But as Greg
Letiecq points out:
What
is pretty easy to determine is that in 2003 Jay
O’Brien got much better results out of Fairfax
County than he did in 2007. A significant decrease
in the effectiveness of the FCRC, improved
organization by Fairfax Democrats, and a stronger
opponent in 2007 made it a much tougher race for
Jay O’Brien this year than in his last election.
One
of those points – about the decreased
effectiveness of the Fairfax Republican Committee
– cannot be ignored by anyone looking for an
answer to what happened in NoVa. When the party
organization is either weak, unorganized,
indebted, or simply more interested in internal
squabbling than it is in winning elections (and a
case can be made that the Fairfax GOP is all of
these, and more), then Republican candidates start
out disadvantaged in almost any race.
Which
means that to be successful, they have to rely
increasingly on their own resources to win, which
is exactly what happened with one of the region's
most conservative Republicans, Ken Cuccinelli.
An
indefatigable campaigner and organizer, Cuccinelli
faced a well-funded, though rather…
interesting… challenger. He won – barely. There
will most likely be a recount, but if history is
any guide, he ought to maintain his miniscule
margin. I think he owes his victory both to his
tenacious campaigning and his unabashed
conservative message.
Contrast
that with what happened to Sen. Jeannemarie
Devolites-Davis. She vocally, even eagerly,
disavowed her party label. She embraced issues
like gun control that put her to the left of her
Democratic challenger, Chap Peterson. This stand
also earned her the endorsement of New York Mayor
Michael Bloomberg. None of it helped. So how did
things go for Republican Delegates? Tim
Hugo managed to survive, and so, too, did the man
who is arguably the most conservative House
member, Bob Marshall. One ominous sign is that
Dave Albo, one of the principles behind the
infamous abuser fee law, saw a surge in write-in
votes against him. Had the Democrats challenged
him, he might very well have lost. So
what do these results show us? If it's that those
who fit the stereotype of being "intolerant
and narrow-minded" still managed to do muddle
through. Those who fit what the conventional
wisdom believes is essential for Republican
rebirth, however, fared poorly. To
use Paul’s construct, the customer -- the voter
-- expressed a preference for truth in packaging.
If Sen. Davis disavows her party, fine, we may as
well opt for the Democrat who sticks with his.
Sen. Cuccinelli is a tough conservative? Fine, he
can still get our votes, but he'd best look at his
future options closely. Bob Marshall is really,
really conservative? Sure, but we'll vote for him
anyway. Northern
Virginia, then, is not necessarily lost to the
GOP. Nor is it necessarily a lock for
Democrats. Demographic changes affect everyone,
regardless of party. What matters more, it seems,
is having a candidate who is willing to work hard
and stand on principle. A
lapsed Democratic friend of mine said yesterday
that things weren't that bad for Republicans. They
still have the House, they still have a role in
redistricting, and they managed to shed some of
the players who muddied their brand. Sure they
took a licking. But they will be the stronger for
it. As Goldman wrote in his post-election piece:
The
Democrats showed good strength, but so did the
Republican party in a less than ideal
environment for their side. We
Democrats have to realize that the Republican
message on fiscal matters, social issues, and
illegal immigration is very powerful even if it
is somewhat devoid from their actual
performance, both recently in Richmond and
currently at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Yes,
there is power in this message. It saved some
Republicans on Tuesday and catapulted others into
the legislature for the first time. The challenge
is to act upon that message and show voters that
they really meant what they were saying on the
campaign trail. Truth in packaging – learn it,
love it, live it.
--
November 12, 2007
|
