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Virginia
election results from November 6 continue to
prompt comments on everything from issues to
campaign strategies. Depending on which
spokesperson one hears, for example, the election
was either all about the illegal immigration issue
or totally not about the illegal immigration
issue. But coloring the results by the numbers is
a better way to understand the cold, hard trends
at work. The inevitability of the numbers in
electoral politics often prompts Paul Simon’s
lyrical question, “Who am I to blow against the
wind?”
Election morning, for
example, Democrats actually woke up with the
majority in the 2008 Virginia Senate. Before a
vote was cast, it was clear that 16 Democrats
either had no opponent or were assured of
reelection. 15 Republicans had no opponents or
were assured of reelection. Those hard numbers
meant that both Democrats and Republicans had to
win five of the nine races considered “in play”
on election day: Ds to take a 21-19 majority and
Rs to get to the 20-20 tie that would allow a
Republican Lt. Governor to break what otherwise
would be an organizational tie when the Virginia
Senate convenes in January 2008.
Democrats won that “best
five out of nine” election by holding the Prince
William seat of Sen. Charles Colgan and winning
two seats each from Republicans in Northern
Virginia and Hampton Roads. Three of those four
seats threw out Republican incumbents. Get ready
to learn more about Democrats George Barker,
Donald McEachin, Chap Petersen, John Miller and
Ralph Northam as they are sworn in as Virginia’s
newest senators. And don’t forget about
Republican newcomers Ralph Smith, Richard Stuart
and Jill Vogel, who prevailed in tight races to
hold the seats of retiring or “retired”
Republican incumbents.
Republican leaders in the
House of Delegates started with a little easier
draw on Election Day. Speaker of the House William
J. Howell could count on 48 of the 100 seats in
the House being filled with Republican candidates,
who either were unopposed or heavily favored to
defeat their opponents, plus two GOP-leaning
independents. House Democratic leaders Ward
Armstrong and Brian Moran were confident that they
would hold the 40 seats they had. That left ten
competitive races considered to be within the
margin of error of tracking polls. Democrats had
to pick up all of those ten seats to threaten the
Republican majority in 2008, but instead picked up
four of the ten. That two of the four seats lost
were in Northern Virginia could be shrugged off by
many Republicans. That the other two seats lost
were in Virginia Beach, however, continues to
prompt questions.
After electoral politics,
of course, the numbers drive governing. Take those
new numbers for the Virginia Senate one more step
and one sees not only new Democratic committee
chairmen named Colgan, Houck, Howell, Locke,
Lucas, Marsh, Miller, Saslaw, Ticer and Whipple,
but also a radical change in the way the chairmen
look. Women are likely to hold seven
chairmanships. African-Americans are likely to
chair four Senate committees.
As ranking minority
members in years past, most new committee heads
have worked smoothly with a Republican
counterpart. New budget conferees from Senate
Finance in 2008, for example, are likely to
include Charles Colgan, Edd Houck, William Wampler
and Walter Stosch, just as in 2007, and one other
Democrat in place of long-time Chairman John
Chichester, a Republican who is retiring. But
coloring by the numbers also points to large
swings in committee membership.
There will be at least
three new Democratic members of that all-knowing,
all-powerful Senate Finance Committee, for
example. There will be at least four new members
of Commerce and Labor, four new members of Rules,
five new members of Transportation, five new
members of General Laws and Technology and six new
members of Privileges and Elections (which among
its other duties will be responsible for
redistricting after the 2010 census). Even with
continued Republican control of the House of
Delegates, at least five committees will be
getting new chairmen and the ratios of Republicans
to Democrats are likely to tick toward Democrats
by one. Cue the Bob Dylan lyric now, “The times,
they are a-changing.”
Underneath all the
immediate results, of course, pulse changing
demographics and medium-term trends in fundraising
and vote-getting that will drive elections next
year and in 2009. These trends, not just issues of
the moment and the November 6 election results,
concern a number of Virginia Republicans.
Despite his failure to
achieve reelection as a United States Senator in
2006, for example, Republican George Allen thumped
challenger Jim Webb in seven of the eleven
Congressional districts in Virginia. Allen rolled
up huge margins in the First, Second, Fourth,
Fifth, Sixth, Seventh and Ninth Districts, margins
that once would have been large enough to ensure
victory. Now Senator Webb only edged out Allen in
the Tenth District (Northern Virginia), but rolled
up an almost 200,000 vote margin in the Eighth and
Eleventh Districts (Northern Virginia) plus the
Third District (stretching from Richmond to
Hampton Roads) to win the election.
Experts point out that
former Gov. Mark Warner will start with similar
margins against any Republican nominated in the
2008 race to replace Sen. John Warner, who is
retiring, for the other Virginia seat in the U.S.
Senate. Mark Warner knows, too, that he also beat
the Republican nominee for Governor in 2001 in the
Fourth, Fifth and Ninth Congressional Districts
and that he left office with approval ratings
approaching 80 percent. Those numbers are why
experts see Mark Warner as the gold standard in
future Virginia electoral politics.
The trends already have
serious implications for 2009 Virginia elections
as well. Population growth and participation rates
by voters, for example, suggest that almost half
the votes to be cast in 2009 are likely to come
from only 10 jurisdictions. One out of seven votes
could come from Fairfax County alone and 25
percent from the Northern Virginia combination of
Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun and Arlington
Counties. Another 11 percent could come from
Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and Norfolk and 10
percent from Chesterfield, Henrico and Richmond.
That means successful
candidates for governor, lieutenant governor and
attorney general will need to be able to roll up
large majorities in at least half of those
counties or cities to be successful.
As they did in 2007, the
battlegrounds for control of the House of
Delegates again will occur in those population
centers in 2009. Looking ahead two years is why
the Democratic gains of four Senate and four
Delegate seats in Fairfax, Prince William,
Virginia Beach and Norfolk are of special concern
to Republicans. It is also why certain officials,
whose strengths are centered in those areas, may
be more optimistic than others in considering
statewide races in 2009. Because of the numbers,
the races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor and
Attorney General already have begun.
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November 12, 2007
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