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This
shouldn’t be happening. House and Senate
Republicans should not be in the position of
having to fight for their lives, and their
legislative majorities, this close to Election
Day. But they are. And if the vote were held
today, the Senate would shift from Republican to
Democratic control. And the House? Well,
somewhere, Dickie Cranwell has a big smile on his
face. How could this happen?
That’s
the question that is already haunting Republican
ranks. Was it the transportation bill that hurt
them? Certainly, passage of that hodge-podge of
new fees and new taxing authorities took the wind
out of the Democrats sails in late spring. Gone
was the big club they planned to beat Republicans
with throughout the summer and fall. And they had
no Plan B. But then, all hell broke loose.
First,
Senate Transportation chairman Marty Williams was
trounced by an under-funded challenger, in part
over the matter of the new taxing authorities
created in the bill. Not long afterwards, the
sliver of the bill containing abuser fees got more
attention than it ever received in the legislature
(or the press, or the blogs) and blew up in
Republicans’ faces.
Perhaps,
in any other time, such issues would not have made
much of a difference. Yes, a few safe seats might
become a bit less so. But, overall, the damage
would have been contained and still the
Republicans would have marched toward November
with bright prospects. Instead, they are forced to
put their leaders on a statewide tour in an
attempt to educate people on why the GOP really,
really deserves another chance.
Richmond
Times-Dispatch reporter Tyler Whitley covered
the tour’s kick-off press conference and summed
up the Republican pitch this way:
Among
the accomplishments listed by the Republicans are
abolishing parole; implementing school Standards
of Learning, welfare and Medicaid reforms, tax
relief, and tougher laws against sexual predators
and drunken drivers; cleaning up the Chesapeake
Bay; and passing a $3 billion transportation
package.
Most
of those were done under Govs. George Allen and
Jim Gilmore, both Republicans.
That
last line is absolutely devastating. In essence,
much of what the worthies are touting happened
long ago -- back when they were, in fact, a
minority party. Those achievements, big as they
are, owed their success to strong Republican
governors and... Democrats.
It’s
interesting to note what wasn’t said… how the
Republicans struck a strong blow for property
rights in the last session (even if some members
of their own caucus were reluctant to go along).
They also managed to eliminate the state’s death
tax and the prepayment of sales and use taxes (a
practice once used to juice the state’s books).
Great recent accomplishments, whose stories need
to be told. Why they aren’t is a mystery. But
there is another matter that isn’t mentioned,
and with good reason… because it in many ways is
the root of the problem the party faces today.
I’m
speaking, of course, about 2004’s sales tax
increase. While one can debate the need for a hike
at that time (and the evidence even before that
session began was that it wasn’t necessary), it
was nonetheless a defining moment. For a time, it
seemed as though the House would stick by its
anti-tax guns. But in a move that still rankles
some, Speaker Bill Howell asked two GOP House
members to "take a walk" before a
committee vote that would have killed the tax hike
before it even reached the House floor. The bill
passed and the rest is history… taxes went up, a
moribund Mark Warner was given new political life
and the GOP was left with a base that felt a
little betrayed.
But
in that same session, Republicans sowed the seeds
of the transportation fight. Instead of putting
more money into roads, as they could have, they
dumped an unprecedented amount into education. The
result was that within days of the final gavel,
stories began to appear about the looming
transportation crisis, and the possibility that
even more revenue would have to be raised in the
next session.
They
eventually did, after much wrangling, but not
exactly in a form that pleased either the pro-tax
Republicans or the Democrats.
It
seemed like a tough, but good win. Which brings us
full circle, and back to a party that is in deep
trouble. How do the Republicans get out of their
jam? Or is that even possible?
At
this point, I don’t believe it is possible for
Virginia Republicans to retain majorities in both
chambers. Gerrymandering insulates them to a
degree in the House, but even in some of those
seats, the numbers I’ve been hearing are not
good.
That's
not to give the Democrats any credit for running
good races. As a party, they have put forward
almost nothing in the way of a platform, let alone
a vision for the Commonwealth that does not
involve even more and even larger government. They
are following as closely as possible the Pelosi
model of campaigning, which is to stand on the
proper corner and wait patiently for the victory
bus to scoop them up in November.
As
I wrote before the 2006 elections back on OMT, the
Republicans are so deep in the weeds, the only way
they will find their way out is to lose, and lose
handily in November. That will not sit well at all
with my partisan friends, but I still believe
defeat can be an invaluable tonic.
For
Virginia Republicans, defeat can help them decide
what they truly believe as a party. It will be
ugly and painful. But it will also be useful,
giving them the sort of clarity they need to come
back strong in 2009 -- and I fully believe that a
Democratic victory in November will result in a
GOP resurgence in 2009...Virginia voters may be
tired of the GOP now, but they will tire even more
quickly of the Democrats.
I
could be wrong about all of this. And if I am, I
will freely admit it. But I could be right. And if
I am, then all of us who believe in limited,
accountable, fiscally responsible government will
have a great deal of work to do to ensure that
those principles are restored to the primacy they
deserve.
--
October 15, 2007
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