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Retirements
and primary defeats this year mean Virginia voters
will elect at least six new members of the
40-member Virginia Senate on November 6. Strong
challenges to incumbents in at least four other
races could raise that number to 10. Candidates
and analysts alike are weighing the contests on
several levels -- which individuals will win,
which party will gain the majority, which region
will gain clout. As the campaign season hits its
final, frenetic five weeks, even observations are
getting more colorful.
Many describe the Senators
retiring or lost – John Chichester, Charles
Hawkins, Russ Potts, Marty Williams, Brandon Bell
and Benny Lambert -- as some of the most
experienced and responsible members of that body.
They suggest that the replacements for these
Senators should mirror the bipartisanship and
pragmatic problem-solving the six have stood for.
That would mean that voters should elect the most
accomplished, most thoughtful candidates
district-by-district, regardless of party. Vote
the person, not the party.
Others, particularly
voters who took down Williams, Bell and Lambert in
primaries, argue it is time for a change and more
active partisanship. That term RINO, Republican In
Name Only, is back. Democrats have their own
activist wing reinvigorated by the upset win of
then outsider, now U.S. Senator James Webb in
2006.
Those focused more on the
goal of holding a Republican majority in the
Senate see continuity in the extended leadership
of Senators such as William Wampler, Walter Stosch,
Ken Stolle and Tommy Norment. They downplay the
disruptive effects of bringing more anti-tax or
social issue Republicans into the majority.
Everyone has to swallow a toad at some point, the
argument goes, and the responsible Republican
senators are going to keep the fringe in check.
Strong financial backing from the leadership for
all Republicans in competitive races already is
taking the edge off those seemingly dangerous
candidates, these observers suggest, and in any
event, Senate Democrats just cannot be trusted
with the majority.
Those who see a Democratic
majority as a better outcome point to the danger
of a sharp turn toward a more ideologically driven
Republican caucus in the Senate if all Republicans
in competitive races win. They see the potential
Republican replacements for Senators Potts,
Williams and Bell as less moderate and more
partisan. They fear that the continuing battle
over who represents the true Republican Party will
destroy the sensible center that has kept the
state Senate serving as a counterweight to the
worst ideas of Governors and the House of
Delegates for more than a decade. And they suggest
that the continuity of that sensible center in the
state Senate would be better served with Democrats
in charge.
A Democratic majority
would bring at least four new Democrats, who have
proven records of service and accomplishment that
translate into responsible governance, the
argument goes. It would place experienced and
pragmatic Senators, such as Charles Colgan, Dick
Saslaw and Janet Howell, in charge of key
committees, and bring more diversity into Senate
leadership by including African-American Senators.
Then there are those
concerned about regional clout. The Senators
retiring or lost were part of the group in the
Senate that viewed many, if not all, problems as
statewide challenges best tackled with a spirit of
the whole. The traditional Senate push for
ambitious statewide transportation investments
provides one example. The bipartisan, statewide
approach helped Senators from all regions work
together on a shared agenda -- business growth,
jobs and investments in education, higher
education and transportation and until this year,
to smooth out initiatives that too overtly awarded
regional advantage.
The potential regional
shift in Senate leadership in some ways may be as
important as the majority party shift that drives
it. A Republican-led Senate in 2008 would have
Bristol, Richmond, Virginia Beach and Williamsburg
as focal points. A Democratic-led Senate would
feature Northern Virginia, a region newly
described by Richmond Times Dispatch
editors on September 17 in these terms: “Northern
Virginia is mainstream; it occupies the center.”
That center is represented
by seven Democratic Senators and three Republican
Senators now (eight and four, respectively, with a
broader definition of the region). But the
possibility appears to be growing that Democrats
will gain two or three seats in Northern Virginia
on November 7. A Democratic majority in the Senate
would bring Northern Virginian Charles Colgan in
as chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, for
example, instead of William Wampler of Bristol.
Individual results, party
majorities and regional clout are at stake for the
Virginia Senate on November. But whether that
means voters will swallow a toad, kiss a frog, try
to describe an elephant or pin the tail on the
donkey remains to be seen.
--
October 1, 2007
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