|
We
have been studying energy supply and conversion
data in preparation for the chapter in
"Bridges" on Mobility and Access. How anyone can face the
public or stand for office at the municipal,
state or federal level without addressing the
unsustainable trajectory of these data is beyond
comprehension.
That
realization got us to thinking about the context
for the current challenges facing governance
practitioners and wondering how they can face
voters and the media or get to sleep at night.
(See End Note
One.)
There
must be something in the back of the minds of
the Business-As-Usual advocates and
apologists that lets them whistle past the
graveyard day after day. After due
consideration it must be something like this:
Hey
if things get too bad we can just bail out. I
heard about this place on CNN that sounds
pretty good...
In
exploring this issue we are not stepping outside
the Virginia-centric focus of Bacon's
Rebellion but rather providing context for
consideration of the Mobility and Access Crisis,
the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and
the Helter Skelter Crisis, the latter of which
Jim explores in his lead column.
Let
us start with this observation:
There
are no viable alternatives to humans evolving
sustainable settlement patterns to support a
prosperous, stable and environmentally sound
civilization.
The
ninth of the Nine Fundamental Theses articulated
in Chapter 1 of "The Shape of the
Future" states that there is “No Exit.”
The reality that there is in fact “No Exit”
is further explored at the beginning of Chapter
23, which is devoted to the concept of
“sustainability”.
A
place to start in supporting the “No Exit”
view is the fact that there are no planets in
Earth’s Solar system that would sustain
Earth’s life forms without hugely expensive
enclosures to create habitable environments –
places like the Space Station, only far harder
to get to and maintain.
The
only large-scale attempt to create an enclosed
environment on Earth - the Biosphere in Oracle,
Ariz. - cost $200 million dollars and was an
economic and social - say nothing of physical -
failure. (See End
Note Two.)
The
good news is that in the seven years since
"The Shape of the Future" was
published, the number of known planets outside
the solar system has increased to somewhere
between 220 and 230. (See End
Note Three.)
The
bad news is that almost all of the planets are
giant gas balls like Jupiter with extremely high
temperatures, making them unlikely candidates
for a place to which earthlings might escape the
failure of humans to survive on Earth, even if
they could get there.
In
April of 2007, European astronomers confirmed
the discovery of Gliese 581-C-A. This planet,
which orbits the red dwarf star Gliese 581-C, is
the first “rocky” earth-like planet orbiting
at a distance from its star that might create
conditions whereby water could be found as ice,
liquid and vapor as it is on Earth.
Gliese
581-C-A is only 120 to 130 trillion miles (20.5
light years) away. (Again See End Note 3.)
Within days CNN reported that NASA was factoring
the discovery of Gliese 581-C-A into its plans
for a trip to Mars 20+/- years from now.
A
manned trip to Mars would take six months, the
cost would be stupendous and the utility would
be questionable when compared with launching
unmanned scientific payloads including
telescopes in space. (See End
Note 4.)
Scientific
instruments in orbit around the earth and sent
on unmanned missions outside Earth's
gravitational field have provided, and can in
the future provide, invaluable information.
Examples include information on and protection
from real threats like meteors and asteroids
that have and could again impact the Earth with
devastating results. Just ask the dinosaurs.
A
mission to Mars, on the other hand, has only
limited value, especially if we cannot even
create a sustainable trajectory for human
habitation of Earth. The idea that it would be
useful to mine resources on Mars when we waste
the same resources here is mind boggling.
The
inevitability of earthlings remaining in
galactic quarantine is confirmed by the fact
that with current technology it would take 1.2
million years for a one-way trip to Gliese
581-C-A versus six months to get to Mars.
If
humans were able to figure out a way to travel
at the speed of light, it would still take an
entire lifetime to reach Gliese 581-C-A and
return. This would make shuttle service at the
speed of light a multi-generational effort.
The
closest theoretical “safe havens” in space
are yet-to- be-discovered planets in orbit
around three stars identified in Chapter 23, Box
1 of "The Shape of the Future": Alpha,
Beta and Proxima Centauri. They are only about
25 trillion miles away. It would require only
250,000 years to reach them with current
technology and four-plus years traveling at the
speed of light.
With
current mobility strategies it is not possible
to move the residents of New Orleans 30 miles in
24 hours to get them out of harm's way. The idea
that there is some exit or an excuse to not make
human habitation of Earth sustainable is simply
preposterous.
Let
us all agree that the first priority is to make
humans safe and happy on this planet. Success in
that mission would validate the possibility of
humans exploring beyond the Moon in person once
there is technology, the cost of which makes
such activity a rational priority for human
resource expenditure.
--
July 2, 2007
End
Notes
(1).
In our Bacon's Rebellion Blog post “Insights
and Silliness” of 24 June, we list 10
current Crises
Mobility
and Access Crisis
Affordable
and Accessible Housing Crisis
Helter
Skelter Crisis
Wealth
Gap Crisis
Energy
Crisis
Balance
of Payments Crisis
Retirement
and Health Benefits Crisis
Food
Security Crisis
Communicable
Disease Crisis
Personal
and Community Security Crisis requiring a War on
Terrorism
Add
to those the Illegal Aliens Among Us Crisis that
has been in the national news and you have a lot
of things that the current governance mechanism
is not doing well.
(2).
Biosphere was a 3.15-acre structure built to be
an artificial closed ecological system in
Oracle, Ariz., by Space Biosphere Ventures.
Constructed between 1987 and 1989, it tested if
and how people could live and work in a closed
biosphere while carrying out scientific
experiments. The funding for the $200 million
project came from Edward Bass.
As of
June 5, 2007, the Biosphere site, totaling 1,650
acres located in the Tucson New Urban Region,
was sold to a residential home developer for
US$50 million. A development including homes and
a resort hotel is planned for a portion of the
land. The Biosphere itself, now termed
“Biosphere 2," is open to the public for
tours. (Source: Wikipedia and Biosphere 2
website.)
(3).
During a six-day period, three different news
reports reported the number of planets found to
date to be either 220 or 230 and the distance to
Gliese 581-C to be either 120 trillion miles or
130 trillion miles. But what is 10-trillion
miles among friends?
(4).
Achenback, Joel. “Here’s Looking at You,
Universe.” The Washington Post. 13 May
2007, B-1
|
