Koelemay's Kosmos

Doug Koelemay


 

 

Leadership in the New Economy

Technology is still propelling the American economy forward. Virginia is doing well in this sector -- but not as well as it could.


 

One and one-half billion dollars worth of computer-chip exports from Virginia in 2006 totaled more than coal exports ($882 million) and cigarette exports ($510 million) combined. Micron in Manassas and Qimonda AG in Henrico expanded chip production to meet exploding demand for computers, cell phones, iPods, cameras and other devices worldwide. Such developments provide just the latest reason to understand in more detail the transformations driven by the technology economy, a process that’s become so important that economists are rolling out new definitions and indicators.

 

Richmond-based Chmura Economics & Analytics, for example, has begun using new definitions developed by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics to trace technology jobs in the state. Level one technology industries, for example, are those that employ at least five times the national average of those occupations. Sectors such as software publishing; Internet publishing, broadcasting, services and searches; data processing and hosting; and computer design and services are on that list. Greg Chmura reports in his quarterly “Virginia Economic Trends” that those five industries more that doubled their employment in Virginia between 1992 and 2002 and will jump more than 50 percent higher between 2002 and 2012. That signals leadership in the New Economy.

 

Virginia has about 262,000 employees in these level one industries and another 276,000 employees in levels two and three, which measure lower averages. Chmura concludes that growth in this high-tech sector is the primary reason that Virginia’s economy has performed above the national average in recent years. Some of Virginia’s most recent vital statistics are: 7.6 million people, 3.75 million jobs, $270 billion in annual income, and an unemployment rate of 2.9 percent. Two-thirds of Virginia’s level one jobs are in Northern Virginia, which has about 32 percent of the state’s population.

 

Those figures are the jumping off point for another evaluation of Virginia’s economy and a comparison of its transformations with those in other states. “The 2007 State New Economy Index,” now a joint project of the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF), was released in February. The index draws on similar work done in 1999 and 2002, but again, has added new indicators and modified others to judge more precisely how a state’s economy is structured and operates to compete in a knowledge-based, entrepreneurial, innovation-driven world.

 

Virginia, which ranked 12th among states in the 1999 index, held its eighth position from 2002 again in 2007. In an increasingly competitive world, that is a very positive sign. Massachusetts held on to number one, but other well-known tech centers slipped -- California to fifth, Colorado to ninth, Oregon to 17th and Arizona to 22nd. Yet it was disappointing to see New Jersey leapfrog the Commonwealth into second place and Maryland jump to third.

 

For the first time, Virginia can see itself clearly linked more to the Mid-Atlantic region than the South going forward. Despite its Research Triangle Park and the technology aura it bequeaths, neighboring North Carolina ranked only 26th among states in the index, down two spots from 2002. Georgia was 18th, Florida 23rd.

 

And there are gaps that the index highlights for Virginia, which proved to be first among states in its percentage of information technology professionals, second in technology jobs and first in fastest growing firms.

 

Keeping that jobs and skills pipeline full is a challenge, but the Commonwealth has had a series of relative successes. Virginia was ranked fifth in workforce education, sixth in e-government, ninth in technology in schools and eleventh in the immigration of knowledge workers. But given the top ranking for Virginia in growing new businesses fast, its rank of 17th among states in venture capital, 18th in industry-supported research and development and 47th (!) in entrepreneurial activity signals that some significant opportunities are being lost.

 

The primary author of the index, Dr. Robert D. Atkinson of the ITIF, points out digital transformations are still at early stages in various sectors, from health care, education and transportation to government and real estate and that the productivity gains are still ahead. But he also notes that information technology and the Internet have made it possible for more work to be done at a distance. That fact has prompted investments by developing nations in infrastructure, workforce and business attraction that has fueled expansion of business and manufacturing operations outside the United States faster than inside.

 

Specifically noted are examples of investments made in India, the destination of a recent trade mission by Virginia officials and business executives. Unique incentives include governments providing free right-of-way for fiber optic cable, donating office space to information technology firms, subsidizing electrical power for tech firms, exempting software from taxes and seeding new, low-cost education and skills programs.

 

“In order to succeed in the new global economy,” Atkinson concludes, “states can no longer rely on a strategy of relentlessly driving down costs and providing large incentives to attract locationally mobile branch plants or offices.” For example, job creation tax credits, which try to offset low labor costs of developing nations, are less useful than incentives that build on U.S. strengths in capital formation, skills development and innovation.

Northern Virginia’s technology-driven economy, which is seeing employment growth accelerate again, provides useful examples of how jobs and economic activity follow educated people engaged in innovative thinking. Chmura’s most recently published statistics suggest that Northern Virginia will account for 70 percent of the increased demand for commercial office space in the state over the next two years. (Winchester and Charlottesville also will have strong demand.) And Northern Virginia is projected to lead the state even in industrial sector employment growth, which will be flat statewide. (Roanoke is also to expect growth in industrial sector employment.)

 

Turning regional best practices into widespread practices across a state, the index authors suggest, will require universities, school boards, firms, local governments, economic development agencies and others to “work in new, and often uncomfortable ways.”

 

“At the end of the day,” the report concludes, “this is a challenge of leadership.” And leadership can be the most difficult thing to measure.

 

-- May 14, 2007 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact info

 

J. Douglas Koelemay

Managing Director

Qorvis Communications

8484 Westpark Drive

Suite 800

McLean, Virginia 22102

Phone: (703) 744-7800

Fax:    (703) 744-7994

Email:   dkoelemay@qorvis.com

 

Read his profile here.