The Shape of the Future

E M Risse


 

Moldy Bread, Lame Circuses

 

November's elections decided only this: that the two-party duopoly would remain in power, that fundamental change would not occur, and the nation would continue its slide down an unsustainable path.


 

Our last column, “Bread and Circuses,” appeared the day before the 7 November elections. Now that the election is past, one might hope that the high season of partisan electioneering were over. That is not the case.

 

In “Bread and Circuses,” we noted:

Until there is Fundamental Change in governance structure and citizens move beyond the current two-party duopoly, the very best one can hope for is that neither party gains control of more than one branch of the legislature and the executive mansion at federal or state levels.  It would be best if neither party has unquestioned control over any legislative chamber or executive branch.

That is about what happened on 7 November and that is about all that could be hoped for at this point. There will be divided control in “the capital of the free world” and that is a good thing, given what one-party control has wrought over the past six years. However, eliminating monopoly rule is only the first step. Duopoly rule is also a long term loser.

 

Where to From Here?

 

Jim Bacon summed up the election very nicely in a blog posting titled “Elections, Shmelections. Nothing Has Changed.” Many of the posts to this string point out critical shortcomings in the current structure of governance but offered few solutions.

 

The party now in control of Congress has a narrow majority. Many who were elected won by small margins. The donkey clan leaders are already fighting among themselves and the elephant clan rank and file are abandoning their most recent flag bearer. There is little prospect of real change in the months and years ahead under the current political construct.

 

Mark Weinberger, a partner in Ernst & Young and former treasury official, was quoted in WaPo on 9 November as saying: “There is nothing more important on either party’s mind than winning the presidency in 2008. The window for bi-partisan cooperation is very small.”

 

Creating a sustainable trajectory for civilization requires Fundamental Changes: Fundamental Change in human settlement pattern and Fundamental Change in governance structure. (See End Note One.)

 

Everyone now in office is beholden to the current duopoly. The same is true for those who were just elected. Talk of going to the capital – state or federal – and making a significant positive change is meaningless rhetoric.

 

In Virginia, citizens went to the polls to vote for representatives at the national and municipal scales. The winning participant’s platforms and the agendas outlined since the election by all governance practitioners reflect no interest in any significant change from the partisan efforts that are leading toward profound economic, social and physical unsustainability. The “agendas for change” are just lists of past initiatives that have failed.

 

Both the winners and the losers in Virginia are positioning themselves for more gridlock in January – political and vehicular. The primarily focus on the next legislative session will be jockeying for position in anticipation of the 2007 elections when all the General Assembly seats will be up for grabs. In preparation for the 2007 elections you might consider putting the following on your bumper:

Voting for an incumbent is voting for Business-As-Usual.

If you really like the way civilization is headed, vote for an incumbent. If not, vote for change.

 

If you are pleased with society in general – the economy, foreign policy, the trade deficit, the environment, consumption of resources, security and safety go for Business As Usual. The same is true for your family, your dooryard and your community. If you are happier and more secure, and there is no problem with mobility and access in your region, and everyone in your community has access to affordable housing, then there is no reason for you to vote for change. If you and your family are better off now than five years ago go for the status quo.

 

Based on the three-tiered economic profile outlined in PROPERTY DYNAMICS, if citizens vote their enlightened self-interest, there will be a landslide for Fundamental Change.

 

A Matter of Scale

 

Dysfunctional human settlement patterns are incentivized /subsidized by federal and state legislation, programs and policies. Dysfunctional patterns and densities of land use are, however, implemented primarily by regional, community-, village- and neighborhood-scale actions.

The problem is there exits no regional-, community-, village- or neighborhood- scale governance structure.

All that now exists are state (province) and municipal governance structures. The current structure was conceived to support citizens in the agrarian society that existed in 1760. These structures were not well suited for the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th and 19th Centuries. (See End Note Two.)

 

Current governance arrangements are profoundly outdated in the face of 21st Century economic, social and physical realities. Global competition, electronic communications, advances in science/technology are only the most obvious indicators of governance structure obsolescence. It is not the ideals of democracy and freedom that need changing but the mechanism to achieve these common goals.

 

County governments are technically not “municipalities” but they provide municipal serves for the majority of the citizens of the Commonwealth. There are almost no municipal governments (including counties) that are of Alpha Community or even Beta Community scale. Most counties are too large or too small to serve as Alpha Community governments. Many counties inside the Clear Edge around the Core of Virginia’s three New Urban Regions cover the territory of several potential Alpha Communities. Fairfax County covers  eight or ten community-scale components.

 

Most Cities and towns are far smaller than the logical Alpha Community. Jim Bacon explores the transportation impact of freezing annexation which has exacerbated this reality in “Seventy Five Years,” 9 Oct 2006. In addition, towns are only semi-municipalities because of the roll of counties in town governance.

 

There are a few municipalities that are of Alpha Village Scale. The “cities” of Fairfax, Falls Church and Poquoson are sometimes cited as examples of appropriately scaled “village” governments. Many of these small “cities” are not coterminous with the organic Alpha Village boundaries, however, and all have powers that far exceed geographic reality, which thwarts the rational allocation of governance functions.

 

There are no neighborhood- or cluster-scale governments. The closest entities that exists are homeowner associations. Homeowner associations, as currently structured, are woefully inadequate to meet even the tasks for which they are now responsible.

 

There are no regional or subregional governments, PERIOD. Is there anyone who thinks that mobility and access, affordable and accessible housing or safety and security are not regional and subregional problems?

 

The Countryside has no coherent governance structure.

The existing mishmash of wrong-sized or vacuum governance structures, leads to dysfunctional governance, which results in dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

As long as citizens/voters have no opportunity to make input at the level of impact, least-common-denominator governance flourishes.

 

The National Party

 

One underlying cause of dysfunctional governance is the illusion that there can be meaningful one-policy-fits-all party platforms and positions.

“National” party platforms should focus on national interests and the “regional” party platforms should focus on regional interests. Problem is there are no “regional” parties.

A statement of objectives for a group of like-minded representatives at the national scale on topic “A” would be different from the objectives of a similar group on topic “A” at the regional scale. While the overarching goals may be compatible – e.g. increasing home ownership – the implementation strategies would be different. For this reason the platform of the any political party must be different at different scales.

 

As noted in “Bread and Circuses,” the vacuum of governance agencies at the regional, community and village scales has bucked problems up to the state and federal scales. The same is true for political parties.

 

Here are examples of scale dysfunction in housing, transport and social cohesiveness:

 

Few question the goal of increased home ownership as part of the larger objective of affordable and accessible housing for all citizens. Programs that may support this goal at the national level -- the federal mortgage interest subsidy and the creation of tradable securities from pooled mortgages -- yield obvious problems at regional and community scales. These blunt federal tools have resulted in building wrong-size houses in the wrong location. (See “Solutions to the Shelter Crisis,” 25 July 2005.)

 

In transportation the idea of an interregional expressway system to support national defense and interregional commerce is sound national policy. However, the regional impact of pouring federal money into an “Interstate and Defense Highway System” has disaggregated urban fabric at the community and regional scales. (See “Interstate Crime, 28 February 2005, and “Regional Rigor Mortis,” 6 June 2005.)

 

Similar problems of scale emerge when looking at settlement pattern parameters from the other end of the spectrum. What constitutes a sound policy at dooryard and perhaps cluster scale – e.g. homogeneity – can be disruptive at the neighborhood scale. Homogeneity leads to total dysfunction at the village and community scales. This is because homogeneity does not facilitate the evolution of a balance of Jobs/Housing/Services/ Recreation/Amenity at these scales, which is essential to sustainability.

 

Of course, scatteration of homogeneous enclaves is an economic, social and physical disaster at regional scale. (See “Regional Rigor Mortis,” 6 June 2005.)

 

It is impossible for a single “party” to adopt a platform with meaningful detail and specificity to cover areas such as housing, mobility and access or patterns of land use generally that relates to all scales of human settlement.

 

It goes without saying that the policies and programs at the nation-state scale are often different than those at the multi-national scale. This issue is faced every day in the European Union.

 

Politics of Expediency

 

The historic rationale for political “parties” was to have an umbrella organization that represented common interests and philosophy in a society with low levels of literacy and primitive means of communication over vast distances. Party politics never work well but party managers have found a way to capitalize on the governance structure vacuum to create a duopoly and perpetuate dysfunction.  Electronic communications eclipses most of the reasons for simplistic, one-size-fits-all parties and platforms.

Party platforms, and politics in general, have degenerated to meaningless platitudes about “freedom,” “low taxes” and “middle-class values.” Understanding the importance of different interests at different scales could be the nail in the coffin of one-size-fits-all scales politics.

As we noted in “Bread and Circuses,” the current political parties champion lower taxes, provide subsidies and lower cost of goods and services, including scarce resources, to increase “competition” and spur “growth.” The net result is to waste resources and accelerate evolution of an unsustainable human settlement pattern. This is true for all resources but especially energy. (See “Soft Consumption Paths,” 7 August 2006.)

 

Role of parties has morphed to focus on the generation of platitudes. These simplistic catchall sound bites are designed to secure 50.5 percent of the vote.

 

Private interests and proclivities have eclipsed what governance should focus on: Public interest and general welfare. Separation of church (religion) and state (governance) is one way to put it, separation of religious and other private-choice organizations from political parties is another.

 

A late 19th and early 20th Century “progressive” ideal was that “local” elections should be non-partisan. Some municipal elections are nonpartisan by charter, others by custom. Other “nonpartisan” arrangements reflect an attempt to avoid being saddled by elements of state or national party platform or personalities.

 

The root problem with this idea is that “local” is a confusing word. Does “local” mean “regional,” “community,” “village,” “neighborhood,” “cluster” or even “dooryard. (See the discussion on “Local” in Appendix Two, Core Confusing Words of "The Shape of the Future.")

 

There is a simple sound-bite solution to the “national party” problem:

No political party can support candidates running for office to at more than one scale.

This would result in the creation of distinct parties at nation-state, regional, community, village and neighborhood scales. Parties might form multi-scale coalitions when they share mutual interests, but the focus would be on policies and programs that relate to a specific scale, not meaningless sound bites like “conservative” or “liberal.”

 

Current political parties serve those in office, but not citizens. Citizens and society in general need functional governance. Parties serve as a spring board for politicians to “move up,” creating pressure from elected officials to have parties that purport to span all the scales of human settlement pattern.

 

The goal of both the donkey clan and the elephant clan is to get 50.5 percent of the vote, and winning an election is more important than governing. Programs with substance offend those who profit from Business As Usual, so spin masters nix substance.

 

Society has reached the current gridlock on affordable/ accessible housing, mobility/access and now safety and security via least common denominator decisions (aka, “political compromise”). Compromise is appropriate now and then but when trajectory of civilization is down, and the path is wildly unsustainable, citizens must find a way to achieve Fundamental Change, not compromise. This is especially true when the primary area of agreement between donkeys and elephants is continued over consumption of resources and unsustainable “growth.”  (See “Bread and Circuses,” 6 November 2006.)

 

What Is This Fundamental Change of Which You Speak?

 

Here is a quick, threshold check list of milestones on the path to Fundamental Change in governance structure:

  • Move the capital of USofA to Mid-America.

  • Rationalize state boundaries to reflect current social, economic and demographic realities.

The "Shape of the Future" provides a threshold survey of alternatives, including the 37-state proposal of Brunn, and a more profound restructuring to reflect Joel Garreau’s “Nine Nations of America” categorization.

  • Create elected regional governance structures for at least the largest 68 New Urban Regions in the USofA. (See “The Shape of Richmond’s Future,” 16 Feb 2004) for a snapshot of the process to create this governance structure. The key is to understand the imperative of evolving Balanced Communities within sustainable New Urban Regions.

  • Create elected governance structures for Urban Support Regions.

  • Articulate rational subcontinental, continental and intercontinental trading systems.

  • Reallocate governance functions so that the level of control is congruent with the level of impact. It is critical to understand the importance of organic components of human settlement patterns and the evolution of Balanced Communities in sustainable New Urban Regions and Urban Support Regions.

The Bottom Line

 

Bottom Line is this:

 

If civilization is to evolve toward a sustainable trajectory, it will require Fundamental Change in human settlement patterns. (See End Note 1.) Fundamental Change in human settlement patterns will not be achieved under the current governance structure. This is because current governance practitioners – elected and appointed – believe that their power and that of their party is best served by the status quo and avoiding Fundamental Change.

 

That is why progress on PROPERTY DYNAMICS is critical.  (See End Note Three.)

 


 

End Notes

 

(1). This will be the topic of a forthcoming Backgrounder titled “Understanding Human Settlement Patterns,” which will become the Introduction to TRILOGY.

 

(2). Many aspects of these policies were set down in the Northwest Ordinance of 1789. This view of desirable settlement patterns reflected the vision of all the major political and economic perspectives of the time. The Industrial Revolution was already making these perspectives obsolete when the Northwest Ordinance was adopted. See discussion of the 1800 to 2000 transformation from an agrarian society to an urban society in “Burned Out,” 10 July 2006, and in “Regional Rigor Mortis,” 6 June 2005.

 

(3). This column and the prior column (“Bread and Circuses”) are being revised to serve as the introduction to PROPERTY DYNAMICS in TRILOGY.

 

-- November 20, 2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ed Risse and his wife Linda live inside the "Clear Edge" of the "urban enclave" known as Warrenton, a municipality in the Countryside near the edge of the Washington-Baltimore "New Urban Region."

 

Mr. Risse, the principal of

SYNERGY/Planning, Inc., can be contacted at spirisse@aol.com.

 

Read his profile here.