Election
Speed Bump
The
2006 elections were bad news for Republicans but
not necessarily for Conservatives.
This
election two weeks ago was a speed bump on the
path of history across the U.S. and in Virginia.
Many Republican candidates lost races in the
House, in the Senate, and for some governorships.
Few Conservatives lost. Very, very few
Conservatives lost in the South. I’m sure the
results were a crushing blow to Sen. George Allen
and his family. But, there was no new barrier
built to his Conservative ideas.
In
fact, if the voters in just our First
Congressional District had voted for Allen as by
the same margin as they had voted a conservative
"Yes" for Marriage (136,522 to 126,367),
Allen would have won the election. (Allen lost
across the Commonwealth by 8,786 votes.)
Furthermore, twice as many voters as the margin of
Virginia-wide defeat voted "Yes" for our
very conservative congressman Rep. Jo Ann Davis (143,889 to
126,367). Enough Conservative voters split
their vote in discerning judgment for George Allen
to lose.
Everyone
can, and will, draw their own conclusions. One of
the biggest reasons for Republican setbacks, I
believe, is that politicians need to earn
Virginians' votes every election. Name the three
reasons to elect Mark Earley, Jerry Kilgore or
George Allen.
As
a political nerd, I could name three for Allen,
but he didn’t make them crystal clear to all the
voters, especially the apolitical,
non-ideological, margin-of- victory voters in the
middle. And, as noted, he lost some of his base of
Conservatives.
Other
than the personal pain for the losers, the only
serious consequence of the Republican defeat is
the increased likelihood of enactment of an
amnesty bill for illegal aliens or new socialized
medicine entitlements. Anything else, even
blunders on the long, long WW IV against Islamists,
can be fixed by a Conservative president and
Congress that actually governs as Conservatives.
The
only threat to our Republic is if Justice Bader or
Kennedy retire and is replaced by a like-minded
Leftist. Otherwise, we can breath easily and enjoy
the show of Democrats legislating for two years.
It will be political theater at its best.
There
will be more drama in Virginia worth watching. It
looks like former Republican National Committee
Chairman Ed Gillespie will crowned the Chairman of
the Republican Party of Virginia. I don’t know
of any opposition.
I
got my call from Ed Gillespie to vote for him for
Chairman, RPV. He gave me his elevator speech on
why he wanted the job. He has concerns about
Virginia and thinks we can turn it around as a
model for other states. He has lived in Virginia
(originally from N.J.) for 13 years and considers
himself a Virginian.
I
asked if we could do 20 quick questions. He agreed
amicably. Fewer than 20 followed. He is NOT
running for state-wide office in ''07, '08
(Senate), or '09 (Governor). He has a day job
contract through Dec '10.
He
is not setting up any presidential bid for '08.
He
will not take sides, officially or unofficially,
for challengers to incumbent Republicans in the
General Assembly. He will support the winner of
the nomination.
He
understands that two separate political messages
can't be sent to NoVa and RoVa. But, much can be
done to ID conservative voters who live in NoVa.
Elected
officials from NoVa and RoVa will represent
different constituencies issue by issue. But, on
some Party issues we all must line up together.
He
is interested in 1st District Chairman Russ
Moulton's idea to spend resources on permanent and
part-time staff working in the districts.
He
is calling all the members of the SCC to ask for
their vote. I told him that I thought it was a
done deal already. That is too bad, because I
looked forward to an election fight. He laughed.
So,
what does this say about the process? A guy made
it to the top by volunteering and closing the loop
with the highest elected politicians and district
chairs who influence the decisions of others, then
by working his way down to check the block for all
the individual votes on the committee. He ran the
table fast.
The
irony of Gillespie being inserted at the top of
the RPV, along with the inevitable calls for
unity, is the possible consequences.
If
the Republican incumbents who are the hand maidens
to Democrat governors, like local Tidewater pols
Sen. Tommy Norment, Sen. Marty Williams, and Del.
Glenn Oder, stay in office, stuck on stupid with
tax and spend/regional government/more tax and
spend, and remain unchallenged in Republian
primaries, then the loss of Conservative votes
that cost Allen his election will happen again in
state-wide contests. No money or organization can
overcome it.
Maybe
our base will bleed worse. Depends on the
candidates. It’s up to the Republicans to have
issues worth voting for. The Democrats will say
they are conservative – M. Warner, Kaine and
Webb did. A 90s-like Allen and Gilmore candidacy
would be clear. It would be convincing to
Conservatives, and, if the issues and campaign are
right, to the "moderates" in the middle
ideologically and NoVa geographically.
Conservatives
must earn every vote every election. Conservatives
need to give up on the name-calling campaigns.
The
"Liberal" label is a bogey man that
doesn’t frighten anymore. Speak of our issues
and ideas where we triumph. Provide better
constituent service with a staff dedicated to all
of your voters, regardless of party or place in
life, instead of focused on the next, higher
elective office. Serve The People above self.
--
November 20, 2006
|