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At
times landmarks on the path to creating
dysfunctional human settlement are easy to spot. A
few weeks ago Fauquier Times-Democrat
reporter Don del Rosso documented such a landmark.
He profiled Bill Downey, a former Fauquier
County School Board member who ran hard for, and
won, a seat on the Board of Supervisors in 2003.
Don’s story documented why the supervisor
“burned out” and would not run for reelection
in 2007.(1)
The
article, “Calling it Quits,” examines in depth
why a Fauquier County Supervisor
will not run for a second term, delineating a
troubling trend in Greater Warrenton- Fauquier and
highlighting an example
of what best-selling author Malcolm Gladwell calls
“a tipping point.”
Supervisor
Downey is an active, high-profile governance
practitioner. He is not always on the winning side
in the evermore complex debates over the shape of
Greater Warrenton-Fauquier’s future. The
Fauquier Board has recently taken on a number of
high-profile issues related to land subdivision,
farm preservation, urban services, school
location, transportation – issues that will
determine the settlement pattern for decades to
come.
Based
on the volume and tone of letters to the editor
and new interest groups that are emerging, it is
apparent that a growing number disagree with
decisions the Board of Supervisors has been making
– regardless of what it decides. The critiques
of these decisions seem to fall in three broad
categories. Using locally-flavored metaphors they
include:
For
some who have lived in several Communities in the
northern part of Virginia over the past four
decades, the Fauquier supervisors seem to be
repeating the mistakes made by other boards in
other jurisdictions years and even decades ago.
Perhaps
the biggest issue before the Board of Supervisors
is the future of open land in the Countryside.
Some claim that the leadership in Greater
Warrenton-Fauquier has been doing the best they
can for 40 years. Now it is quite clear that
measures taken to conserve open land have had the
effect opposite of what was intended. Large lots
turn out to spread urban houses across the
Countryside, destroying the resources that
governance practitioners and citizens were trying
to save.
Given
the context in which they work, can anyone expect
these governance practitioners to do better?
It is not a lack of good will or good intent. As
del Rosso’s story illustrates, it is not for
lack of effort. The bottom line is that with the
current governance structure, the process of
change in human settlement pattern from nonurban
to urban is approaching ungovernability. In a word
it is “dysfunctional.”
The
Larger Picture
Del
Rosso’s supervisor-burnout story prompted us
to contribute an op-ed to the Fauquier Times
Democrat (“Burnout: Another Tipping
Point?” June 28, 2006, Page A 17). Burnout
is a tipping point in places like Fauquier
County and in other jurisdictions that lie from
30 to 100 miles from the centroid of the
National Capital Subregion.
However, burnout is not happening in
just these
jurisdictions. Frustration with governance
and the inability to govern is endemic. Jurisdictions far from the Core of the Subregion
continue to repeat mistakes that jurisdictions
closer to the Core made years ago. At the
same time, jurisdictions in or near the Core
(inside the Clear Edge) are frustrated and
compromised in every significant effort to
evolve more functional human settlement
patterns.
Why is governing the
evolution of settlement patterns so complex and
why cannot well-intended governance
practitioners and citizens do better?
For starters jurisdictions (aka, municipalities
and counties) are not contiguous with
Communities, and Communities are not
jurisdictions. Regular readers of
Bacon’s Rebellion know this but most
governance practitioners and citizens do not yet
understand the difference.
We will
return to this reality later, but first let us
consider some contextual factors.
Regional
Subregional Context
First,
there is no governmental recognition of
the economic, social and physical reality of
(much less the boundaries of) the
Washington-Baltimore New Urban Region.
Next, there is confusion and jurisdictional
dispute over the extent of the National Capital
Subregion.
Finally, there is
mass confusion about the size and location of
the Virginia portion of the National Capital
Subregion. (See “Where is Northern
Virginia,” Aug. 11, 2003, which addresses all three of these
phenomenon.)
There is not even
discussion of the organic structure (and organic
components that make up) these three spheres of
geographic reality.
The
jurisdictional (municipal and county) and
state boundaries delineated before and soon
after the Revolutionary War are irrelevant to
the economic, social or physical reality that
exists 200 years later. In 1806 about 95
percent of the population of what now comprises the
Washington-Baltimore New Urban Region were
directly or indirectly involved in nonurban
activities (e.g. farming, fishing, forestry and
mining) and the cumulative total of all the
urban areas was about the size of the City of
Falls Church. Today 95 percent of the
population is involved in urban activities and
the intensively urbanized area is 400 times the
area of the City of Falls Church.
Urbanized areas, especially large, fast- growing,
21-century urban agglomerations, require a high
flux of governance structure and a broader range
of organizations for democracy to function.
Area dominated by more self-sufficient
agglomerations of nonurban activities such as
existed 200 years ago required less governance
structure.
That is why the
location of Beta Community boundaries that
reflect the scale of the Community and the
boundaries of all the Community’s components
are so important. As noted above Beta
Community boundaries are not related to
jurisdictional borders. Further
jurisdictional borders are not scaled to or
changed to reflect the stages of (or speed of)
radial expansion in the urbanization process.
And finally there is not yet any consensus on
the need for or location of the Clear Edge.
(See “Beyond the Clear Edge,” May
26, 2003.)
The jurisdictional
borders obscure the reality of radial geography.
Fairfax County covers the northern part of
Virginia from Potomac River to Potomac River
between Radius=6 to 8 Miles out to Radius=18
to 20 miles and embraces all or part of nine
Beta Communities. While Fairfax County
covers all or part of nine Beta Communities,
Prince William County covers two and Loudoun
County covers four including one that Loudoun
County shares with Fairfax County.
Over the past 20 years the logical location of
the Clear Edge has moved from between R=15 and
R=20 to between R=22 and R=25, falling in
eastern Loudoun County and through Prince
William County running from the Potomac River in
the northwest to the Potomac River on the
southeast.
Western Loudoun /
Fauquier and Rappahannock Counties make up most
of a logical declination of a Balanced but
Disaggregated Beta Community outside the Clear
Edge. Regional Metrics based on Radial
Geography do not generate perfect circles
because of a number of factors. The
federal military reservations, interregional
traffic patterns and the Greater Fredericksburg
Subregion along with topography and other
factors yield different Beta Community
configurations in the I-95 Corridor than are
found in the I-66 or the DAAR/Greenway
Corridors. For this reason the Clear Edge
does not follow an equal radius circular path.
Timing
Beyond
boundaries and
borders, the second major factor confusing the
governance of the urbanization process is
timing. There are volumes of interesting
history concerning the northern part of
Virginia. The major impacts on the
evolution of governance in this Subregion
started about 60 Years ago at the end of World
War II.
The rate of outward
expansion varies with the parameter considered.
First, land values go up to reflect speculative
expectations. Later, urban land uses are
developed on a tiny fraction of the land held
for urban development. Radial expansion of
the open-land owner’s unfounded dreams of
urban exploitation are followed by a much less
rapid scatteration of urban land uses. It
is decades before infill results in functional
urban land use patterns. The speed at
which urban land uses expand radially varies
with the extension of and the capacity expansion
of radial transport facilities.
There is no place where failure to grasp the
importance of A=PiR2
the first Natural
Law of Human Settlement Pattern(2), plays a greater
role than in urban development expectation
racing ahead of demand.
Flipping
and Flopping
In a
democracy, governance practitioners must rely on
citizens to provide guidance. During rapid
expansion of an urban agglomeration without
rational forethought there is no consensus upon
which policies, programs and incentives to
consider or implement. The reasons are
clear:
Large
numbers of new citizens moving into
jurisdictions with 200-year-old borders disrupts
the traditional (aka, slow) assimilation of new
ideas and new paradigms.
Old
residents – the “been heres” – are not
models of consistency. They change
attitudes while claiming “been here” values.
They have an eye on the potential sale of land
at inflated, urban, windfall values.
New residents – the “come heres” – have
new ideas, new priorities, new needs and new
demands. The first wave of new residents
want to pull up the drawbridge to keep out the
potential “new, new” citizens. The
first new residents use the excess capacity from
the nonurban era – e.g. the farm-to-market
roadways – but expect the “new, news” to
pay for their impact via developer fees.
Due to the geographic reality noted above, there
is no “community” identity, especially in
areas where a county is the “local”
government. Within 300,000 to 500,000
acres of territory spanning 20 radial miles
there are examples of most of the stages of
nonurban-to-urban transition.
It is not just the jurisdictions at or beyond
the logical location of the Clear Edge that face
flip/flop citizen views. Closer to the
Core, jurisdictions that seek to achieve
“stability” and “buildout” do not come
close before infill, backfill, refill starts. Organic systems
change or die. Human
settlement is an organic system.
In
this context it is easy to understand the
emergence of new policies and rough transitions
from election to election. Here are two
examples:
-
The let-her-rip Boards (some members of which
went to jail over zoning actions) of the '60s in
Fairfax County flipped to the Pause for Planning/No Growth Board in 1971, and then flopped to
the Tax Base Board in 1975, and then to a series
of stalemated boards, which after 30 years is
finally beginning the process of putting
rational development in METRO station areas.
(See “Metro
West, 22 Years Too Late,”
March 28, 2006 at Bacons Rebellion Blog.)
It is no wonder there is governance practitioner
burnout.
Is
Professionalism the Cure?
Sixty
years ago the elected leadership of Fauquier
County, the Town of Warrenton and other
jurisdictions in Virginia’s northern Piedmont
began making decisions, failing to make
decisions and not even considering actions which
have brought the Beta Community to today’s
reality – crowed schools, traffic congestion,
eroding Countryside and the other related
impacts of large-scale metropolitan urbanization
35 to 100 miles from the centroid of the
National Capital Subregion.
Because
the leadership did not understand A=PiR2, what
was thought of 60 years ago as the start of
intensive urbanization turned out to become the
scatteration of low-intensity urban land uses
across the Countryside. What is happening
now, as indicated by “Calling it Quits,” is
that the urbanization process is moving to a new
phase. What lies ahead is potentially even
more destructive of Countryside resources, as
well as Urbanside resources, than in previous
phases.
The
citizens of Greater
Warrenton-Fauquier and other Beta Communities
from 35 to 100 miles from the centroid of the
National Capital Subregion are now on the cusp
of a new wave of challenges -- ones for
which the existing institutions and governance
structure, policies and programs are not
designed or equipped.
Scatteration of urban land uses across the
Countryside is hard to manage. The
conflict between the goals and expectations of
“been-heres” and the goals and expectations
of the “come-heres” is nearly impossible to
accommodate during this period of transition
because there are not yet any agencies and
institutions set up to meet the challenge.
The conversion from nonurban area governance to
urban area governance started years ago with new
standards and expectations for some county,
city, town and school system employees.
The transition started in Arlington County and
moved out radially. There were also new
standards and expectations for those who
provided volunteer services. The
transition from volunteer to professional staff
in fire, rescue, and safety personnel is a
familiar transition that is approaching
completion in Arlington but is an ongoing
process further out.
What Supervisor
Downey’s burn out indicates is that municipal
elected leadership is morphing into a full-time,
professional job. Elected officials having
a “life” apart form government service is
becoming a thing of the past and will disappear
unless a new governance structure evolves that
provides better ways to govern areas inside and
outside the Clear Edge. These new systems
must involve more well informed citizens and
more decision making fora. Decisions must
be made by those who will be impacted and made
by agencies with jurisdictions that match the
scale of the impact. These new structures
will not focus so many decisions at the Town
Council, the City Council, the County Board or
the General Assembly.
Fundamental change in the governance structure
to reflect the new, complex demands of an urban
community is difficult to accomplish. In
the normal course it will be a number of years
before a majority of the citizens in outlying
jurisdictions will even accept the fact that
they need full-time professional politicians to
run their government.
Past
experience in Core jurisdictions indicates that
in the interim, there will be a period when
elected officials are not just “volunteers”
but persons who gain a personal advantage,
directly and indirectly, from holding office.
The policies toward change in the community
flops back and forth as it has in Fairfax County
and is now doing in Loudoun County. During
the period of transition many of the resources
of the community are lost in spite of the best
efforts of all involved.
Even
professionalization of municipal governance is
not a panacea. Professional governance
management when confronted with the challenge of
conversion from nonurban to urban land uses in
large New Urban Regions has resulted in
stalemate, timid non-solutions, politically
correct compromises and the perpetuation of Business-As-Usual.
Fundamental Change is not just
professionalization.
Where
to From Here?
Driven by:
municipal and county
jurisdictions (with little help from the
Commonwealth) are struggling with the process of
urbanization and a 60-year legacy of partial
urbanization – sometimes called
“suburbanization”.
It is not clear how much
could have done to change the trajectory of
Warrenton-Fauquier 60 years ago when the
transition first started even if elected and
appointed governance practitioners had a crystal
ball. Even today not much can be done to
change the traditional course of events acting
as individual jurisdictions.
By joining
with neighboring jurisdictions and adopting a
proactive agenda, a great deal can be
accomplished to create the type of Alpha
Communities in which the vast majority of voters
would like to live and work. But success will
require Fundamental Change in governance
structure as well as Fundamental Change in human
settlement patterns.
Government
official burnout is a warning sign
that the upcoming elections will be critical. Many will rely for votes on
political party clichés and social wedge issues
that are irrelevant. Some will run for
office on a platform of “Trust me and I will
make it better.” Others will
cater to a number of conflicting objectives –
preserving the Countryside, improving congestion for the commuter,
saving the
farmer, expanding business opportunities,
creating
affordable and accessible housing, expanding the
tax base, lowering taxes... the list goes
on. Many of these things can be pursued
simultaneously but not by following the policies
established to date nor with the existing governance
structure.
News coverage and
letters to the editor in MainStream Media over
the last two years – and the last 20 –
indicate that citizens have fundamentally different
perspectives and profound misunderstandings
about how one addresses these issues.
With elections held every four years and
supervisors burning out in one term, the
direction of governance policy will shift with
the wind as happened in Fairfax County and is
happening in Loudoun County unless
community-wide attention is focused on the cause
and impact of the burnout tipping point.
These are issues which PROPERTY DYNAMICS is
tooling up to address.
--
July 10, 2006
Footnotes
1.
“Calling it Quits: Needing A
‘Break,’ Supervisor Bill Downey Will Retire
After One Term.” Fauquier Times Democrat. 21
June 2006 Page 1.
2.
A=PiR2. Translated: Area = Pi times the radius
squared. In other words, as development follows
the radius out from the centroid at an
arithmetic rate, the area
increases at a geometric rate, leaving large
holes undeveloped or underdeveloped..
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