Patrick McSweeney


 

A New Political Laboratory

The days are gone when Virginia politics were of local interest only. Campaign themes and strategies in the Old Dominion are increasingly visible on the national stage.


 

In 2006, we can look past California as the proving ground for new political tactics and messages. Virginia is the leading political laboratory this year.

 

For decades, virtually every new approach to politics went through the California process before it was launched in other parts of the nation. A confluence of circumstances has changed that — at least for a time. One of those circumstances is obvious: Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s 2005 gubernatorial campaign plan emphasizing his religious values has become a model being embraced by Democratic candidates across the United States.

 

Virginia is also the residence of two likely candidates for the U.S. Presidency in 2008: U.S. Sen. George Allen and former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner. Although not as populous as California, the Commonwealth has a relatively large population dominated by residents in suburban precincts where the outcome of general elections is often decided.

 

Virginia will be looked to in 2006 for signs of political shifts, resonance of particular messages and partisan organizational strength. Two elections have already drawn considerable national attention. The first is Allen’s campaign for reelection to the Senate seat he first won in a 2000 election contest with Charles Robb. The other is the reelection bid by Thelma Drake in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District in Hampton Roads.

 

The Democrats had a two-way battle for the party nomination to challenge Allen for the Senate seat on the November ballot. In a relatively low-turnout primary election on June 13, former Republican James H. Webb, Jr. defeated Harris N. Miller by a surprisingly wide margin. The primary drew national attention.

 

Webb’s nomination was supported by a gaggle of prominent and not-so-prominent U.S. Senators, including John Kerry and the entire Democratic leadership in the Senate, U.S. Representative John P. Murtha, D-Pa. and former U.S. Senators Thomas Daschle, Robert Kerrey and Max Cleland. The signal sent by these endorsements was clear: Webb was the pragmatic choice and the candidate they considered more likely to defeat Allen.

 

The Allen-Webb match-up will be as close to a marquee race as the nation will have this year. Webb has already trotted out his major themes. He will try to take full advantage of President George Bush’s unpopularity, the public’s current preference for change in Washington, and the general frustration over the protracted war in Iraq. Allen has been one of the most consistent of the President’s supporters in Congress and an unabashed stalwart on Iraq.

 

The Democrats have embarked on a high-risk course in Virginia, obviously hoping that Webb’s anti-war message won’t leave him open to caricature, as happened to George McGovern, the Democratic Presidential candidate in 1972.

 

Unlike the Nixon-McGovern race that year, other factors are in play. The popular disgust with perceived corruption in Washington and the recent decline in public support for the Republican Party provide Webb a measure of insulation that McGovern lacked in 1972. Webb is playing to more than anti-war sentiment.

 

Drake will be running for reelection against Democrat Phil Kellam in another Virginia election contest that national pundits and party leaders have targeted. As evidence of the national implications of the Drake-Kellam election, the liberal group Moveon.org has begun a savage campaign of character assassination against Drake. This attack has already backfired, to the disadvantage of Kellam. Bush made a recent appearance on Drake’s behalf in the district. She clearly isn’t avoiding a virtual referendum on the Bush Presidency.

 

Politics is never as simple as it appears. The national polls themselves are merely snapshots in a dynamic environment. More important here is that Virginians have often defied pollsters’ prognostications. No matter how much Virginia may have changed in recent years, it is hardly California.

 

-- June 26, 2006

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact Information

 

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