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“Politics
are always a struggle for power, disguised and
modified by prudence, reason and moral pretext.”
--William Hurrell Mallock (English author;
1849-1923)
In
the 1974 Congressional elections, held in the
aftermath of the Watergate scandal and resignation
of President Richard Nixon, the Republican Party
was decimated.
Some
political pundits are questioning whether the 2006
elections could wreck the same sort of havoc.
Although Democrats have tried to pin a series of
“scandals” on the Administration of President
Bush, none have caught fire. Common sense would
suggest that, absent a major scandal between now
and November, the GOP should be safe.
But
this may be a hasty assumption. Unfortunately for
the GOP, a number of negative factors are looming
on the political horizon. When combined, they
could very well spell doom for a number of
Republican candidates.
The
United States is stuck fighting an increasingly
unpopular war in Iraq. A majority of voters knows
instinctively that we are better off fighting
terrorists in the Middle East rather than waiting
for them to strike us on our homeland. But the
continued carnage in Iraq has turned a generally
sympathetic public against the war.
Then
there is the issue of illegal immigration. The
rallies staged by illegal immigrants and
supporters of open border policies have convinced
the majority of the public that we must secure the
borders and take strong action against illegal
immigration. That's where the GOP is in deep
trouble. Although some conservative
Republican lawmakers are in tune with the voters,
taking a hard line against illegal immigration,
President Bush and the Republican Senate are not
following suit.
Add
$3.00-per-gallon gasoline prices to the
combustible mix, and President Bush’s
job-approval ratings have tanked—the lowest
measured for any president in the past 50 years.
These factors alone could produce devastating
results for the Republicans in the November
elections.
But
the GOP is facing internal struggles, too. Some of
the internal battles can readily be seen here in
Virginia where the GOP remains badly fragmented.
The struggles between the pro-tax and low-tax
elements in the Virginia GOP have been repeatedly
discussed in this column. The current budget
stalemate in the General Assembly results
precisely from this schism, where the House of
Delegates tows the line against tax increases
while the tax-and-spend Senate pushes for another
round of tax hikes in the face of a burgeoning
budget surplus brought on, in part, by the largest
tax increase in Virginia’s history two years
ago.
Between
the war in Iraq, illegal immigration, skyrocketing
gasoline prices, the malaise with President Bush
and the spectacle of Republican legislators
fighting for higher taxes and bigger government,
the Republican grassroots is demoralized. The low
morale was evidence in Virginia's gubernatorial
elections last November and then again in the 33rd
State Senate District, where a Democrat was
elected in a Republican stronghold.
The
upcoming convention in the 10th Congressional
District on May 20, may highlight the tensions. The incumbent District Chairman of 14
years, Jim Rich, is being challenged by a
conservative, who is supported by frustrated
activists.
Rich,
who received the endorsement of U.S.
Representative Frank Wolf (R), has compared his
challengers to the Communist regime of Mao Zedong,
in China. So much for having a civil discussion on
the issues! Rich irked conservatives when he and a
couple of other members of the GOP's State Central
Committee cast a vote in favor of open primaries
-- infuriating to conservative Republicans who
have repeatedly seen Democrats cross party lines
to vote for RINO (Republican In Name Only)
incumbents.
Even
though Rich is downplaying this challenge, he is
proof prime that long-term incumbency breeds
complacency. His challenger, Heidi Stirrup has
received the endorsement of former U.S. House
Majority Leader Dick Armey (R). She charges that
under Rich’s leadership the 10th District has
earned the dubious distinction in the 2005
elections of being tenth in voter turnout.
Stirrup’s
charges are right on target. Rich and the 10th
District have been virtually absent in supporting
any Republican candidate running for office within
the district’s boundaries and do not provide support
to the subordinate Republican units. Rich only
seems interested in getting Rep. Wolf re-elected,
even though Wolf has been receiving smaller
re-election margins every two years in an
undisputed strong Republican District.
Who
gets elected as the 10th District chairman next
Saturday may have little effect on what happens to
the Republican Party in the November elections. On
the other hand, it exemplifies that with less than
six months to go, the GOP is facing serious
internal divisions — in addition to all the
external negatives. All these factors combined can
indeed spell doom for the GOP in November.
--
May 15, 2006
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