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The
Black Vote in 2005
African
Americans will favor Tim Kaine this November, but
perhaps not by the same margin that Democratic
candidates are accustomed to.
In
the months leading up to Labor Day, the
mainstream media and Virginia
blogosphere have examined the gubernatorial
candidates’ efforts to attract Virginia's black
voters from various
perspectives. Many of the commentaries and
analyses probed whether Jerry Kilgore's overtures
to African Americans were serious plays for the
Democrats "base," or whether the
campaign was just going through the motions to
appear progressive and look open-minded. The
hubbub dovetailed nicely with RNC
Chair Ken Mehlman's apology and outreach tour.
Add
to this the fact that Doug Wilder, arguably the
nation's greatest, and definitely Virginia's most
entertaining, black politician has now wrapped up
his scheduled powwows with Kilgore,
Potts,
and Kaine,
announcing that he’s holding off on an
announcement until a later time. For what it’s
worth, I’d like to offer yet another viewpoint
on the possibilities surrounding Virginia’s
black voters - from my vantage point as a
politically independent African-American blogger.
As noted before on other sites, the recent Survey
USA poll taken in early August noted that, of
likely black voters, 17 percent were planning to
vote for Kilgore, 3 percent were undecided, 72
percent were for Kaine, and Potts polled at 3
percent. Though legitimate issues have been raised
about the reputation of the survey shop, the
reliability of the data, and the representation of
the sample, the results are still interesting to
me. The Mason-Dixon poll set Kilgore's take closer
to 10 percent, but the numbers of black undecided
voters was significant. That Kilgore is polling as
high as 17 percent among likely black voters in
any poll is an accomplishment.
Given recent political history, it should not be
surprising that a Republican candidate is
garnering African-American support in Virginia. As
Attorney General, Jim Gilmore’s leadership of
the investigations into black church-burning
incidents in Virginia and the nation set him up
well when he ran for Governor. With that base
established, his car-tax plan played very well
among black voters, many of whom expected to
benefit economically from such a policy change
(now, we know the true result). When Doug Wilder
refused to endorse Don Beyer and proclaimed both
candidates to be good men, Gilmore walk away with
a good chunk of black votes on Election Day 1997.
In 2000, according to CNN,
George Bush received 14 percent of black
Virginians' votes, among the highest in the
nation. Although his tally dipped to 12 percent in
2004, he still had a better showing among black
Virginians than most other states. Outside of his
tough 1996 race against Mark Warner, John Warner
has always enjoyed significant black support, and
as of late Senator Allen has been positioning
himself better with African Americans, notably
with his leadership of the Senate anti-lynching
apology.
Heading into this November's showdown, much of the
media and blogger chatter has been about the
tactics, rhetoric or endorsements that the
candidate are employing to attract black votes.
Still, to me, there is one missing piece of the
political puzzle - an answer to the question of
why black Virginians vote Republican more often
than blacks nationally. Admittedly, I don't have
all of the answers, and unfortunately there has
never been a truly systematic study of black voter
behavior that has made it into popular Virginia
political discussions. However, I have found a few
bits of information from the Census
Bureau, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and the Kaiser
Family Foundation that may shed a little light
into this phenomenon.
Long story short, black Virginians demonstrate a
number of social and economic indicators that may
make them more favorably disposed to support
Republican and conservative candidates. From an economic
perspective, African Americans in Virginia are
relatively better off than their counterparts
elsewhere. Compared to national numbers,
Virginia's black community is marginally less
impoverished (30 percent poverty rate vs. 33
percent U.S.), and more likely to be employed (7.7
percent unemployment rate vs. 10.4 percent for
blacks nationally). From a social-family
perspective, blacks in Virginia have lower
teenage birth rates, higher rates of prenatal
care, and report lower incidents of mental health
problems.
Intellectual honesty requires that I note that
black Virginias have higher than average AIDS
infection rates, are more obese than blacks
elsewhere, and have the same levels of educational
attainment. Still, the comparatively positive
employment and birth statistics may leave black
Virginians more favorably disposed to voting for
the Republican message of lower taxes, business
growth and family values. Additionally,
significant numbers of black Virginians live in
rural counties and growing small cities, and in
the Commonwealth's metro areas, the black
population is becoming more suburban over time,
especially in Hampton Roads, Metro Richmond and
Northern Virginia. This potential integration into
the larger, whiter community increases the
likelihood of people coming together for work, in
the mall, at restaurants, and for soccer practice,
creating opportunities for cross-pollination of
ideas about politics, religion, culture and race
itself. All of this translates into political
variables that may slowly push black Virginians
away from traditional Democratic politics and
toward Republicans.
Anecdotally, I'd also offer that the history of
Virginia has left her black residents leery of
either party. We all know about the GOP Southern
Strategy, but Virginia Democrats did not follow
the DNC's path of being black-friendly until the
late 1980's. Black political will was frustrated
by Byrd machine remnants until Chuck Robb’s
ascension to the governorship, and Republicans
such as Linwood Holton and John Dalton earned the
respect of many black voters in the 1960's and
1970's. At the same time, unlike our neighbors in
Tennessee, Maryland and DC, Virginia does not have
a history of power-brokering black Democratic
machines or familial dynasties with statewide
reach. For the most part, the 100 percent
Democratic Virginia Legislative black Caucus does
not have a leader with statewide name recognition,
nor does Virginia's lone black congressman - Bobby
Scott - have much of a following outside of his
3rd District communities. As such, black politics
in Virginia is much more localized and symbolic
than about rallying huge voter and volunteer
networks. Hence, in the absence of a notable
political apparatus, Doug Wilder's moves carry
sway in the church pews, barbershops, beauty
salons, and radio stations of black Virginia.
Thus far, both Kaine and Kilgore have advertised
with black
media and enlisted the requisite rostrum of
black supporters and endorsers. Though Kaine will
undoubtedly win the black vote by a large margin,
if the Kilgore camp plays its cards right, the
former AG could siphon off enough black voters to
damage Democratic hopes of retaining the Executive
Mansion. Even Russ Potts has a shot at snatching a
few black voters, and according to sources in his
campaign, he'd planned to make appearances with
prominent black sports figures he's worked with,
as well as, tout his relationships with his black
Senate colleagues.
Political preferences aside, in the final
analysis, I think that the continued
diversification of black voter behavior in
Virginia is a good thing for all of us, regardless
of political persuasion. As former Virginia House
of Delegates member and unsuccessful GOP
Congressional candidate Winsome Sears rhetorically
posed to me, "Why should we leave it up to
the liberals to tell our story?"
Hopefully,
once the full story of black Virginia Votes is put
out there for Democrats, Republicans, and
Independents alike, there will be no need for
racial labels or gamesmanship to muddy the waters
of Virginia politics.
--
September 5, 2005
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