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Journalists,
whose understand history rivals that of fruit
flies, think Virginia’s Republican primary
was a ringing defeat for the anti-tax
conservatives. In fact, the primary was only
one skirmish in a long campaign. It was more
of a first fight, like Big Bethel (1861), than
climatic battle, like Gettysburg (1865).
There
will be many more political battles to
determine whether or not "Republican"
in Virginia means limited government and lower
taxes, as the Republican Party of Virginia
creed says. (I leave it the reader to
determine which political party wears blue or
gray to support their cause in my metaphor).
Virginians
for whom "Republican" is the
adjective modifying their
"Conservative" noun found it a very
pleasing primary. Targeting 17 House of
Delegates RINOs who voted for Democrat Mark
Warner’s largest tax increase in Virginia
history, the Virginia Conservative Action PAC
sponsored six candidates to run against the
incumbents and one to compete in an open seat.
The
candidates were youngsters of good heart, but
lacking stature for sure. Yet, one challenger
won and the open seat was taken. A couple more
came close.
In
Virginia turning out an incumbent is something
special. Once elected, the Old Dominion holds
onto politicians with the same loyalty King
Charles II recognized. Ask Democrat
Congressman Rick Boucher.
At
this rate, RINOs in the House will be replaced
by Reagan Republicans in a mere fourteen
years. No problem.
Furthermore,
no candidate ran on the promise to raise
taxes. Not that running as a Conservative
inhibits RINOism in office, but it says
something about their voting constituency.
Likewise,
every one of the six state-wide candidates ran
as social, defense and fiscal conservatives.
In fact, the big debates were about who was
the more trustworthy tax cutter in each race.
The
laughable irony was Steve Baril and Sean
Connaughton swearing fealty to tax cuts while
being bankrolled and endorsed by the bigger,
more- government, higher-taxes RINOs and their
government client supporters.
The
Fitch phenomenon is a caution to Jerry
Kilgore’s campaign platform. Getting 18% of
the vote in a Party primary after the
nomination is sewed up tighter than George
Allen’s favorite football, is significant.
These weren’t the Russell Potts voters from
the more liberal social issue GOP.
The
protest votes for Fitch were from the base of
the Party. Not good for November. Especially,
if Kilgore continues to run on an un-elected,
regional government with taxing authority,
which Virginians defeated at the polls twice
in the past seven years.
The
uninspiring, less-than-exciting, campaign for
Honest Reform is only part of the dampening of
voter turn out. I’ve been told in the 7-11
and Farm Fresh by Old GOP Regulars that
they’re taking time out from Party politics.
They’re thoroughly disgusted with weak U.S.
Senate Republicans this year and apostate
Virginia General Assembly Republicans from
last year’s tax increase. With Kilgore
supporting all incumbents and offering no tax
rollback--only a plan to meddle with local
issue of property taxes--and with all
candidates swearing they are conservative, why
bother voting in the primary?
Which
begs the question why bother voting in
November? Republicans were key to the tax
increase. Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine is running as the
same tax-cutting conservative as Gov. Mark
Warner. What is the difference, really? So,
Kaine is a Liberal. He got elected for
Commonwealth-wide office. The bumper sticker
– Liberal – will not defeat one.
Only
real issues matter, like illegal immigration
and state Medicaid mandates. Gov. Mark Warner
understands that issues beat labels alone
because he was, is and will be Liberal but
will run as a ‘Moderate’ for president.
That
presidential race in ’08 will complicate the
gubernatorial campaign in '05. Warner needs
Kaine to win to fuel his run for President.
Sen. (and ex-Gov.) Allen doesn’t need
Kilgore to win, but it would be helpful.
Both
national party committees and their big money
are coming to the Commonwealth. Do they
understand local political issues that drive
voting wedges - like blacks in Hampton angry
at local white Democrats running City Council
who fired the black city manager. Or will they
try to put national issues up for referendum?
It all makes for an interesting election
season across Virginia.
This
pleasing primary made modest gains for
Conservatives. No unexpected losses were
suffered. The tax-and-spend Republican
incumbents are welcomed to think they’re
bullet proof. There’s a Fredericksburg,
Second Manassas and Chancellorsville coming up
in Virginia Republican politics. Guess who
wins?
--
June 20, 2005
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