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What
Dr. Robert Atkinson of the Progressive Policy
Institute in Washington, D.C. calls “knowledge
workers” (See "Technology’s
Long Wave", April 11, 2005), Dr. Richard
Florida, now a star faculty member at George Mason
University, calls “the creative class.” Both
are interpreting transformations underway in
lifestyles, work, quality and competitiveness.
Both are trying to direct future policies toward
economic growth and a higher quality of life. And
though Dr. Florida is not focused on technology
like Dr. Atkinson, he concludes that now, more
than ever, the future belongs to those states and
regions that create, nurture, support and attract
the creative class -- scientists, architects,
engineers, entertainers, content providers,
educators, entrepreneurs, financial and legal
professionals.
Few
regions, it turns out, have tackled that challenge
more successfully in recent years than Northern
Virginia, specifically Fairfax County. That could
help explain Dr. Florida’s own move from
Carnegie-Mellon University to George Mason
University last year. His latest book is The
Flight of the Creative Class (Harper-Business
2005), which points out how every country is now
working to keep or attract those who once
naturally sought out the United States.
Fairfax
County is the heart of one of only 10 percent of
regions that continues to attract more “creative
class” employees than they produce. Dr. Florida’s
new colleague at George Mason University, Dr.
Stephen Fuller, has just documented Fairfax County’s
growth from 490,000 people and 148,700 jobs in
1970 to 1.1 million people and 847,900 jobs today.
That’s 123 percent growth in people, but a 470
percent growth in jobs. And they are the best
jobs. The gross county product has grown 874
percent to $76 billion in the same 35 year period.
Dr.
Fuller’s modeling shows that the gross Fairfax
County product could double to $156 billion by
2030 as the county’s number of jobs grows to 1.4
million, almost matching its new population of 1.5
million. If it does, the economic engine in
Northern Virginia, utilizing what Fuller calls “more
better jobs,” will continue to power both the
Commonwealth’s economy and that of Greater
Washington.
But
Dr. Florida warns that there is a big if to
that extraordinary future. Can Fairfax County,
Northern Virginia and the Commonwealth provide the
best answers to the key questions of the creative
class: “What’s there? Who’s there? What’s
going on?” The wrong answers here can mean the
most talented and best jobs move somewhere else.
The
best answers, Florida advised a group of citizens
this week pondering the more urban future of
Tysons Corner in Fairfax, are greater openness (“Greater
Washington is one of the great immigrant gateways
in the world at a time we are competing with every
other country for talent and entrepreneurship.”),
greater tolerance for alternative lifestyles (“We
are competing for growing numbers of single,
highly talented adults.”), urban revitalization
(“There is a direct correlation between density
and urbanization in the economy and its
attractiveness for creative types.”), greater
affordability of housing (“Northern Virginia is
in a housing affordability nightmare.”) and
increased public investments in R&D, the arts
and education.
Fuller
documents the housing shortage, too. At a ratio of
one household for every 1.5 jobs, Fairfax County
currently has a housing deficit of 164,000 units.
(There is no mystery about what is driving annual
double-digit growth in property assessments).
Fairfax will need another 175,500 housing units
after filling that deficit to accommodate those
projected to live in the county in 2030. Office
space in Fairfax, already the largest
concentration between Philadelphia and Atlanta,
will need to grow from 110 million square feet now
to 202 million square feet to accommodate the
workers.
Yet,
the advice from Dr. Florida and the work of
economists, such as Dr. Fuller and Dr. Atkinson,
on the global economy and new competitiveness,
challenges current economic development strategies
and political understanding. A Fairfax woman told
a public meeting this week that greater density in
developments around Metrorail stations that mix
residential, office and retail space (also know as
transit-oriented development) would “ruin our
suburban way of life.”
“My vision of Fairfax
County 25 years from now is the way Fairfax
County looked 25 years ago!” she declared,
oblivious that the Fairfax population density of 1,600
people per square mile then already has grown to
2,700 people per square mile (about the same
density as Buffalo, Columbus, Minneapolis-St.
Paul and Seattle). Fairfax County is projected
to have 3,900 people per square mile in 2030.
But
that women is not alone in her misunderstanding.
Two Northern Virginia Congressmen casually
commented this week they didn’t think extending
Metrorail through Tysons Corner and Fairfax should
mean higher density at Metro Stations sites.
Exactly where else the housing and office space
might be concentrated is not clear.
A
Northern Virginia candidate for statewide office
is campaigning on the negative effects of Virginia
relying on workers abroad, although if the “jobs
filled by foreigners” door closes, her region
that would be the biggest loser of foreign-born
technology workers, business executives,
scientists and engineers and the global companies
that employ them.
Some
Northern Virginia legislators were among the
leaders of the 2005 General Assembly punitive
initiatives against undocumented foreign workers
and alternate lifestyles without regard for the
benefits of being seen as a “gateway.” Two
spent the week complaining to the media about a
student-organized discussion of sexuality at
George Mason University, apparently fearful that
learning could break out in an institution of
higher education.
These
officials apparently could care less that their
attitudes and expressions could not only damage
the most positive Fairfax answers to “What’s
there? Who’s there? What’s going on?” They
apparently are unaware that such looks backward
and compulsion to tell others how to live their
lives actually could help other regions overtake
Fairfax County and Northern Virginia as “the
great place to live” that the creative class is
looking for. If one thinks oil shortages and cuts
in federal spending may have negative effects on
the economy, consider a talent and
entrepreneurship shortage triggered by such
shortsightedness. The creative class that cuts
across every country and cultures can decide to
center in any country or culture, not just that of
the United States.
Also
addressing the citizens group discussing the
future of Tysons Corner was Joe Brown, President
and Chief Executive Office of EDAW, an
award-winning, global urban design firm that
includes Alexandria in its office locations around
the world. Brown advised Fairfax County citizens
together to seize the demographic and economic
forces at work to create a great city in Tysons,
one marked by an enjoyable public realm, a variety
of housing, new connectivity and high-quality
amenities and infrastructure.
“You
must shape these forces and lead the process,”
Brown added, “and avoid an accidental,
fragmented design by argument.” Drs. Florida and
Fuller, that citizen group studying Tysons Corner
and those students at George Mason University are
providing some thoughts and actions in that
direction. Some of Virginia’s so-called
political leaders, on the other hand, appear stuck
in the problem and distracted by the politics of
the moment. “Politics, politicians and more
politics” will never be the best answers to the
questions of the creative class.
--
April 25, 2005
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