Bacon's Rebellion

James A. Bacon


 

 

The Small Aircraft Revolution

Fasten your seatbelts, folks, the commercial aviation system built around big planes and big airports is in for a bumpy ride. In the aviation of the future, small is beautiful.


 

Shahid "Sid" Siddiqi, an advocate for NASA’s small aircraft transportation system, doesn’t just talk the talk, he walks the walk.... or flies the fly…. whatever it is that pilots do. Working out of the NASA/Langley facility in Hampton, he declares it a "no brainer" to hop up to Washington, D.C., in his '80s-era Mooney rather than take a three-hour car trip. If he can arrange a meeting with state aviation officials, he'll even fly to one of the small airports outside Richmond -- a 15-minute flight. Says he: "My motto is, I don't drive more than 100 miles."

 

The United States stands on the verge of a revolution in small aircraft transportation -- a revolution that will transform the logic of where people choose to live and where companies do business. Siddiqi, in charge of outreach for the National Consortium for Aviation Mobility, is doing his utmost to hurry it along. With aircraft manufacturers developing new generations of smaller, more economical jet aircraft, and entrepreneurs devising alternatives to big-jet, commercial aviation, Siddiqi is undertaking the missionary work for NASA technologies that will make it safer and more cost effective to fly in and out of hundreds of small-town and suburban airports.

 

The small aircraft revolution is disrupting the air transportation system that has prevailed since deregulation of the airline industry in 1978. That system provides excellent air service to 30 or so of the largest cities in the U.S., but has left smaller 'burgs and 'villes off the beaten flight path. Now, declares Siddiqi, a slightly built, white-haired man who radiates passion for his subject, new technology is transforming the economics that once favored the big cities so lopsidedly.

 

Virginians are among the greatest potential beneficiaries of the small aircraft revolution. First, access will improve to Danville, Lynchburg, Staunton/Harrisonburg, Charlottesville and other communities lacking meaningful commercial service. Second, small aircraft could provide an alternative for middle-tier cities like Richmond and Roanoke that have a tough time competing with airport-hub cities like Atlanta, Charlotte and Washington for cheaper flights and more direct connections.

 

The travails of the commercial airlines are well known. US Air, the dominant carrier in Virginia, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy for the second time; other major carriers are expected to follow suit. Conventional analysis attributes the woes of the large carriers to competition from nimble regional airlines, like Dulles-based Independence Air, flying smaller jets and operating free from burdensome union contracts. For all the disruptive impact of companies like Independence Air, however, the small aircraft revolution has barely begun.

 

Americans take approximately 600 million airplane trips per year, says Siddiqi. The average flight is 700 to 800 miles; of the 10 most heavily traveled airline routes, only two could be considered remotely long distance. The short and intermediate distance flights are vulnerable to competition from smaller planes that can fly point to point, often landing in underutilized general aviation airports. While smaller aircraft may have higher costs per passenger-mile, they save their passengers time and convenience. No check-in hassles. No switching flights. No missed connections. No waiting for baggage.

 

Siddiqi says that very light jets are scheduled to hit the marketplace by 2006, bringing down the cost per passenger mile to about twice that of the commercial airlines. Meanwhile, a slew of entrepreneurs are developing new business models to take advantage of these craft. The future isn't more regularly scheduled passenger flights, it's more flexible access to airplanes that allow passengers fly where they want, when they want. Expect to see more chartered aircraft, more shared ownership -- even air taxis.

 

Pogo, launched earlier this year by the former founder of People Express and the former CEO of American Airlines, will use next-generation aircraft to fly passengers between some 5,000 small- to medium-sized airports around the country. Here's how the Pogo corporate website puts it:

Imagine being able to use the airports closest to where you are and where you want to go, rather than the airports that are convenient for the airlines. Most of these small- to medium-sized airports are used by a relatively small number of private aircraft owners, training schools, corporate jets, and independent charter operations. ... All lack huge terminals, ticketing and waiting areas, and time-consuming and intrusive security screening arrangements. Since flying with POGO is a personalized, on-your-schedule experience, you will spend very little time — only minutes — at the airport.

By sharing rides, suggests Siddiqi, passengers often will be able to keep fares low. Say three people want to fly from Westchester, N.Y. to Dekalb Peachtree Airport in Atlanta. They commission a plane, but there are two empty seats. The flight gets posted on an Internet board. Anyone can sign up until the last minute, and when they do, the price gets cut for all.

 

Increased flexibility is especially important to professionals and business executives who place a premium on the value of their time, Siddiqi notes. Shaving four hours off a round trip may provide ample justification for taking a point-to-point flight. In some cases, an air taxi might even save the traveler the necessity of spending a night out of town, with attendant savings in meals and lodging.

 

NASA wants to facilitate the transition to small aircraft by addressing constraints on small airport capacity. The purpose of the NASA Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS), developed primarily at NASA/Langley in Hampton, is to upgrade the infrastructure of the small airports to inexpensively accommodate flights 24/7, in good weather and bad. There are four main components to the initiative:

  • Using GPS technology to separate planes flying in and out of the airports, avoiding the necessity of investing in ground-based radars and control towers.

  • Using GPS technology and cockpit simulations of surrounding terrain to help pilots take off and land in poor visibility conditions -- as little as 200-foot cloud cover and half-mile visibility.

  • Systems that improve single-pilot performance, eliminating the need, in many instances, for small planes to have co-pilots.

  • Integration of SATS aircraft into the National Airspace System.

NASA/Langley selected the Danville Airport as the first test site for the overlapping technologies. The aerospace agency plans a public demonstration of SATS in mid-June next year.

 

The small aircraft transportation system could make a huge difference to a small city like Danville. Right now, commercial airline service is minimal. Many business travelers drive to Raleigh or Greensboro, more than an hour away. By enabling 24/7 service, SATS would make Danville more attractive to business jets, charter flights and air taxi services. In one bold stroke, Danville could address one of the main drawbacks to living and doing business there. Superior air service, combined with the Southside regional initiative to improve broadband Internet connectivity, could reduce the city's isolation from major business centers.

 

What works for Danville could work for a host of other smaller business and industrial centers Virginia: Lynchburg, Charlottesville, Staunton/Harrisonburg, Blacksburg, Bristol, Winchester, Martinsville... SATS could even change the transportation dynamics for a city like Richmond which has among the fewest direct flights and more expensive air fares of any city its size. For years, city fathers have been beating their heads against the tarmac trying to lure a low-fare airline to Richmond International Airport. If they can't induce a major competitor to Richmond International, maybe they should try luring Pogo's air taxi service.

 

As the price of shared aircraft services continues to decline, Siddiqi sees a mass market opening up. Imagine a family of five living in Alexandria planning a long weekend trip to Hot Springs. How much would it be worth to be able to book reservations for an air taxi to pick up everyone at 6:15 p.m., right after Sissy's soccer game, and check into the Homestead an hour later, just in time to enjoy a gourmet dinner? How much would it be worth to a family in Richmond to be able to leapfrog the Outer Banks traffic congestion and fly to Ocracoke Island, reducing travel time from six hours to two?

 

As Siddiqi has learned from personal experience, the freedom to fly means a lot. A couple of months ago, his sister in Illinois came to visit cousins in New Jersey, just west of New York City. "Saturday morning, I hit the [Newport News] airport at 8 a.m." he says. "I flew to New Jersey. There was an airport five miles away [from my cousins]. It only took me two hours to get to their house. ... I had dinner with them, then came home that evening."

 

Not everyone can pilot their own plane, but in our hurried world where time=money, Siddiqi sees the small aircraft revolution transforming business and personal decisions in ways that we can only begin to imagine. 

 

-- October 18, 2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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