Bacon's Rebellion

James A. Bacon

 

Per Capita Income Growth:

 

Northern Virginia Leads the Way

with a little help from the exurbs.                

The Bureau of Economic Analysis statistics listed in the chart below measure the growth in per capita income, the best single measure of economic prosperity.

The numbers show that Northern Virginia localities accounting for 21 percent of the state's 2000 population -- the counties of Fairfax, Loudoun and Arlington, and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church -- grew considerably faster than the state average. Clearly, the high-tech boom in this region accounted for much, if not most, of Virginia's better-than-average performance compared to the U.S. as a whole.

Other fast-growing localities such as Clark, Rappahannock, Goochland and Botetourt are lightly populated counties on the fringe of nearby metropolitan areas. The 1990s saw their transformation from low-income rural districts into affluent bedroom communities. Though their income growth was impressive, their collective populations were not large enough to significantly impact state averages.

Sporting the second fastest-growing per capita incomes in the state, James City County and Williamsburg are worthy of note. James City County stands in the growth path of metropolitan development in Hampton Roads and is undergoing the predictable metamorphosis from farmland to bedroom community. But the county, playing off the attractions of Williamsburg, also has attracted affluent out-of-state retirees to upscale planned developments.

Other strong performers included Charlottesville-Albemarle County, which experienced an efflorescence of technology-related investment; the Petersburg-Dinwiddie-Colonial Heights region, which rebounded from hard times in the 1980s; and Bristol-Washington County, which grew from a very low base. With these few exceptions, community leaders across most of downstate Virginia need to give serious thought to why their incomes are growing so modestly.

 

Per Capita Income: Virginia Localities

(% increase)
    Area name 1990 2000 Increase
1   Clarke  $18,821 $34,110 81.2%
2   James City + Williamsburg  21,224 36,746 73.1%
3   Madison  13,085 22,620 72.9%
4   Rappahannock  18,080 30,876 70.8%
5   Goochland  23,302 38,967 67.2%
6 Fairfax, Fairfax City + Falls Church 31,233 51,227 64.0%
7 Botetourt  15,679 25,709 64.0%
8 Isle of Wight  17,074 27,853 63.1%
9 Warren  16,333 26,319 61.1%
10 Caroline  14,964 23,788 59.0%
11   Pulaski  13,628 21,646 58.8%
12   Louisa  15,374 24,320 58.2%
13   Craig  13,465 21,278 58.0%
14   Loudoun  25,585 40,290 57.5%
15   Albemarle + Charlottesville  21,409 33,680 57.3%
16

Dinwiddie, Colonial Heights

 + Petersburg 

 17,392 27,358 57.3%
17 Washington + Bristol  14,569 22,877 57.0%
18 King and Queen  15,151 23,750 56.8%
19 Lee  11,178 17,458 56.2%
20 Arlington  31,719 49,508 56.1%
21   Alexandria 31,725 49,395 55.7%
22   Frederick + Winchester  17,475 27,170 55.5%
23   Highland  14,875 23,110 55.4%
24   Spotsylvania + Fredericksburg  18,986 29,474 55.2%
25   Bedford + Bedford City  17,294 26,637 54.0%
26 Suffolk 16,415 25,282 54.0%
27 Westmoreland  14,741 22,685 53.9%
28 Charles City  14,887 22,763 52.9%
29 Charlotte  12,320 18,827 52.8%
30 Fauquier  25,182 38,408 52.5%
31   Page  13,330 20,315 52.4%
    Virginia Metropolitan Portion  22,245 33,887 52.3%
32   Culpeper  18,426 28,055 52.3%
33   Nelson  14,006 21,283 52.0%
    Virginia average 20,527 31,120 51.6%
34   Charlottesville, VA (MSA)  20,369 30,875 51.6%
35   Chesterfield  22,017 33,343 51.4%
36 Southampton + Franklin  15,659 23,712 51.4%
37

Alleghany, Clifton Forge

+ Covington 

 14,954 22,624 51.3%
38 Roanoke, VA (MSA)  19,363 29,181 50.7%
39

Rockbridge, Buena Vista

+ Lexington 

 14,509 21,860 50.7%
40   Roanoke + Salem  21,309 32,053 50.4%
41   Northampton  14,006 21,049 50.3%
42   King George  19,941 29,935 50.1%
43   Russell  11,972 17,909 49.6%
44  

Washington, DC-MD-

VA-WV (PMSA) 

 26,790 40,046 49.5%
45   Bath  16,361 24,447 49.4%
46

Washington-Baltimore, DC-

MD-VA-WV (CMSA) 

 24,898 37,168 49.3%
47 Powhatan  16,052 23,748 47.9%
48 Roanoke 18,240 26,948 47.7%
49 Smyth  13,724 20,188 47.1%
50 New Kent  18,077 26,442 46.3%
51   Nottoway  13,862 20,259 46.1%
52   Hanover  20,555 30,015 46.0%
53   Shenandoah  15,836 23,079 45.7%
54   Montgomery + Radford  13,434 19,576 45.7%
55   Virginia Beach 20,896 30,445 45.7%
56 Orange  16,368 23,808 45.5%
57 Tazewell  13,797 20,052 45.3%
58 Dickenson  11,793 17,131 45.3%
59 Lancaster  21,044 30,541 45.1%
60

Johnson City-Kingsport-

Bristol, TN-VA (MSA) 

 15,394 22,302 44.9%
61   Middlesex  17,524 25,315 44.5%
62   Halifax  13,451 19,422 44.4%
63   Buchanan  13,875 20,023 44.3%
64   Wythe  14,128 20,385 44.3%
    Virginia Non-metropolitan Portion  14,713 21,220 44.2%
65   Mecklenburg  14,318 20,644 44.2%
66 Carroll + Galax  13,303 19,174 44.1%
67 Richmond-Petersburg, VA (MSA)  21,742 31,292 43.9%
68

Norfolk-Virginia Beach-

Newport News, VA-NC (MSA) 

 18,184 26,159 43.9%
69 Gloucester  16,883 24,270 43.8%
70 Essex  15,114 21,699 43.6%
71   Northumberland  16,610 23,763 43.1%
72   Pittsylvania + Danville  14,701 21,028 43.0%
73   Danville, VA (MSA)  14,701 21,028 43.0%
74   Chesapeake 18,547 26,529 43.0%
75   Lynchburg, VA (MSA)  16,885 24,141 43.0%
76 Franklin  14,447 20,579 42.4%
77 Mathews  19,467 27,710 42.3%
78 Stafford  18,938 26,879 41.9%
79 Augusta, Staunton + Waynesboro  17,138 24,184 41.1%
80 Prince George + Hopewell  15,987 22,555 41.1%
81   Appomattox  14,477 20,411 41.0%
82   Brunswick  11,846 16,700 41.0%
83  

Prince William, Manassas

 + Manassas Park 

 21,316 29,967 40.6%
84   Scott  12,180 17,049 40.0%
85   Portsmouth 15,450 21,558 39.5%
86 Giles  14,656 20,441 39.5%
87 Fluvanna  15,994 22,252 39.1%
88 Buckingham  12,237 17,004 39.0%
89 Norfolk 16,165 22,383 38.5%
90 Rockingham + Harrisonburg  15,959 22,082 38.4%
91   Amherst  13,594 18,766 38.0%
92   Grayson  12,274 16,941 38.0%
93   Campbell + Lynchburg  17,528 24,178 37.9%
94   Henrico  24,157 33,286 37.8%
95   Bland  12,423 17,082 37.5%
96 Greensville + Emporia  13,930 19,085 37.0%
97 Floyd  13,125 17,870 36.2%
98 Richmond (City)  23,007 31,279 36.0%
99 York + Poquoson  21,294 28,927 35.8%
100 Wise + Norton  14,175 19,254 35.8%
101   Newport News 16,850 22,849 35.6%
102   Prince Edward  12,380 16,705 34.9%
103   King William  18,412 24,803 34.7%
104   Patrick  13,750 18,473 34.3%
105   Amelia  15,198 20,334 33.8%
106 Sussex  14,909 19,909 33.5%
107 Greene  14,719 19,488 32.4%
108 Lunenberg  12,710 16,604 30.6%
109 Cumberland  13,906 18,099 30.2%
110 Hampton 16,610 21,364 28.6%
111   Henry + Martinsville  16,775 21,154 26.1%
112   Richmond  14,843 18,678 25.8%
113   Accomack  14,288 17,818 24.7%
114   Surry  15,323 19,086 24.6%

July 22, 2002

About Jim Bacon
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