Virginia has not been one of the nation’s fastest growing states but it has consistently enjoyed a healthy net in-migration from other states. In other words, for years more people have moved into Virginia than moved out.
That likely changed in 2014. According to Atlas Van Lines moving records based on nearly 77,000 interstate and cross-border household relocations, more households moved out of Virginia — 66 to be precise — than moved in last year. Now, that’s just Atlas Van Line customers, not everyone. Atlas’ sample size is so small compared to total migration and the margin of out-migration is so tiny, that it’s conceivable that Virginia actually gained population through in-migration. Of course, it’s also possible the Atlas sample was biased the other way and that the Old Dominion lost more than indicated by the numbers.
What really matters is the trend. I’ve reformatted the numbers from the table above:
Declining movement between states is a national trend, usually attributed to people being locked in by the prices of their houses. Still, there are two obvious inflection points in the Virginia numbers: between 2009 and 2010, outbound migration took a jump up, and between 2011 and 2012, in-migration took a nose dive. The latter can be attributed to sequestration and federal cuts. I have no ready explanation for the former. Any ideas?