Don’t send me the Bill. Bill Bolling today announced that he will not run for Governor of Virginia in 2013. A copy of the Lieutenant Governor’s full statement can be found on his website. In the missive Bolling admits that he seriously considered an independent run. He also believes that he would have been a good candidate and the right kind of governor for Virginia. However, he cites three main reasons for not running – fundraising, alienating the Republican Party and the current hyper-partisan political process.
Channeling Woody Hayes. Woody Hayes was best known as the iconic head football coach of Ohio State. He was once quoted as saying that, “Only three things can happen with a forward pass and two of them are bad.” Hayes’ boring approach led the Ohio State Buckeyes to a 205-61-10 record. I suspect that Bill Bolling might be looking at this election in the same way Woody Hayes looked at forward passes.
Could Bolling win? Probably not. Ken Cuccinelli’s hijacking of the Republican nominating “process” (think of the Cantina Scene from the original Star Wars) left Bolling too little time for fund raising. As Bolling wrote in his announcement, “ To run a winning campaign I would have needed to raise at least $10-$15M. That’s a very difficult thing to do without the resources of a major political party and national donors at your disposal.”
Perils of menage a trois. If Bolling ran and lost he would face a dim future regardless of who won. If McAuliffe won Bolling would be blamed by the Republicans for costing Cuccinelli the race. Then he would disappear into the unelected woodwork in a McAuliffe Administration. If Cuccinelli won it would be after campaigning against Bolling. No doubt “the Cooch” would feel that he won in spite of Bolling. No room at the inn in a Cuccinelli administration.
He who turns and runs away. Lives to fight another day. By dropping out Bolling has opened a pretty big door. He’s still probably toast if Cuccinelli wins. Cuccinelli as governor becomes the face of the Republican Party in Virginia and bad blood takes a long time to dry in this state. Meanwhile, Bolling goes back to his insurance executive gig without any particular spotlight. However, if McAuliffe wins it’s a different story. Cuccinelli ends up in the wilderness while Bolling leads the opposition. Plenty of spotlight for an opposition leader – even if he doesn’t hold elected office.
60 ways to leave your lover. Bill Bolling was born in June, 1957. He’ll have just turned 60 at the time of the next governor’s election in 2017.
Playing the odds. Much of what I have written has been discussed by others – especially Paul Goldman. However, I’ll take what’s been said a step further – Bolling needs Cuccinelli to lose. In fact, the worse he loses, the better for Bolling’s 2017 chances. Bolling’s calculation involved assessing his odds of winning against Terry McAuliffe’s odds of winning. Once he decided that McAuliffe had a better chance to win than he did, the die was cast.
What do you feed an invisible cat? Evaporated milk. Look for Bolling to disappear during the campaign. Remember, he needs Cuccinelli to lose (preferably badly). But he can’t risk alienating the Republicans by speaking out against “the Cooch.” Bolling’s third reason for not running (hyper-partisanship) gives him cover during this election. As Bolling writes, “Politics is much different today than it was when I was first elected. In many ways I fear that the ‘Virginia way’ of doing things is rapidly being replaced by the ‘Washington way’ of doing things and that’s not good for Virginia.” How long will Bolling refrain from re-entering the mud of modern day Virginia politics? Until Nov 6, 2013.
– D.J. Rippert
gonna predict a LOW turnout!! both sides but tea pots will turn out.
the folks that turned out for Obama are not likely going to turn out for McAuliffe.
Turn out will be the key. However, my first blush reaction is to disagree with your analysis. For every member of the Tea Party faithful there is a member of the LGBT alliance, a global warming alarmist or an immigration reform person ready to come out and vote against Cuccinelli.
Expect to see Tim Kaine, Mark Warner and other Democrats actively campaigning for McAuliffe. Far right wingers like Bob Goodlatte and Eric Cantor will certainly campaign for Cuccinelli. However, they will be “preaching to the choir”. Bolling has no incentive to help Cuccinelli. So, that leaves McDonnell as the one Republican in Virginia would can sway middle of the road voters. Bob will be thinking about his own political future. How tightly tied to Cuccinelli does he want to get? Cuccinelli is still very much of a loose cannon. If I were McDonnell, I’d go through the motions but I wouldn’t break my back.
It may all come down to which party has the better GOTV apparatus. Clearly, the Democrats have the technology edge. They will use the social media to keep the faithful informed and incensed. Interestingly, the best Republican machine may be under Bill Bolling. Where did Romney go when he needed 10,000 signatures to get on Virginia’s Republican primary ballot? He went to Bolling.
Bolling’s greatest act of revenge may be his refusal to use his own connections and machine to help Cuccinelli get out the vote.
geeze DJ.. what percent of the 2012 elections in Virginia do you think was the demographics you cite?
I think the turnout in Va that won it for Obama was the back turnout and the others were basically “noise”.
Lets put it this way. If the Blacks do not turn out for McAuliffe like they turned out for Obama – he’s toast… because you KNOW the folks who turned out for Allen or going to turn out for Cuccinelli.
the GOP does not generally sit out elections – even when the more moderate ones have to hold their nose for a stinker like Cuccinelli.
Will the Moderate GOP vote for McAuliffe? No WAY! Will they sit at home and not vote for Cuccinelli? No WAY!
Your scenario, though speculative, seems plausible.
Bolling is a good and decent man — a reasonable man. But I don’t sense the hunger in him that drives either McAuliffe or Cuccinelli. As Steve Jobs once said (or something like this), it’s the unreasonable men who change the world. Bolling is just the type of guy to stand in line and wait his turn to be anointed to run for governor — the “Virginia way,” as you observe. That’s reasonable. But the rules have changed.
I don’t see Bolling partaking of politics as blood sport. The easiest path for him is to give a lackluster endorsement of Cuccinelli, thus preserving his Republican bona fides and demonstrating that he can rise above personal pique, but lending no other support.
Actually, LarryG – three former Republican legislators endorsed McAuliffe today.
http://bluevirginia.us/diary/8894/now-that-its-cuckoo-vs-tmac-id-expect-to-see-a-lot-more-like-these
Callahan had 40 years of service as a Republican in the General Assembly.
Dillard had 32 years of service as a Republican in the General Assembly.
Two endorsements from NoVa and one (Waddell) from the City of Richmond / Chesterfield County.
I’d say Cooch the Pooch is under the gun.
holy batcrap! I’ll be hornswaggled!