The soon-to-be-built Charlottesville Bypass provides a lousy economic return on investment. Only government would spend $244 million on a project that yields less than $8 million a year in benefits to the public.
By James A. Bacon
The citizens of Charlottesville and Albemarle County think they have a traffic congestion problem on U.S 29 north of the city. Of course, everybody thinks they have a traffic problem. You should see the intersection of Parham and Patterson near my home in Henrico County around 5:30 p.m. It can take three or four cycles to get through the stop light. And try driving on Interstate 95 in Prince William County. It’s far worse than anything in the Richmond region – you can get stuck in stop-and-go traffic at 6:30 in the morning!
The question is whether the congestion on U.S. 29 north of Charlottesville is so numbingly God-awful compared to all the other traffic hell-holes in Virginia as to warrant a $244 million investment (including sunk expenses) to build a bypass, as the McDonnell administration has decided to do.
For more than a half year now I’ve been writing about the Bypass from a distance, here in Henrico. At times, the controversy seemed remote and abstract. To really understand the controversy, I decided I needed to experience the frustration, the agony and the road rage of driving on U.S. 29 first hand. So, one day in December, using a digital stop watch to track my time, I spent more than an hour driving up and down the congested highway corridor slated for bypass. I wanted to see for myself just how bad things got during rush hour.
It was a regular workday, the University of Virginia was in session and traffic conditions were routine. I set some rules for myself: no lane weaving, no bumper hugging and no gunning through yellow lights to alter the outcome. While I was behaving myself, there would be no cursing, fist shaking or banging on the steering wheel either. I would drive like a normal person.
The results were far from anything I expected.
The stretch of U.S. 29 in question runs through 14 stoplights and is lined with restaurants, shopping malls, office buildings and other development. Although the road is designated a highway of statewide significance — one of Virginia’s three major north-south freight routes — Albemarle County zoned the land around it as a primary growth corridor. Thousands of people use the road to drive to work every day at the University of Virginia and other Charlottesville employment centers.
Figuring that morning rush hour would experience the worst congestion, I picked the period of 7:30 a.m. to 8:30 a.m. to drive back and forth between Ashwood Boulevard at the proposed northern terminus of the Bypass and the U.S. 250 Bypass underpass to the south. Driving north against the rush hour traffic established a base line: My three trips averaged 7 minutes and 42 seconds. Traffic was smooth flowing throughout, although delays did occur during lengthy stop lights at the Hydraulic and Rio road intersections.
Likewise, I drove south three times with the rush hour traffic. My first trip took the longest. I was surprised at how smoothly traffic moved but I did get hung up at the Rio Road intersection for a long stoplight cycle. Thanks to the synchronized lights, however, I whizzed through the major intersections without a hitch on the next two trips. The average drive time for all three: 7 minutes and 21 seconds – faster than when I was driving against the rush hour tide!
At the end of the exercise, I had one question: Traffic congestion? What traffic congestion? These people know nothing about traffic congestion!! What is all the hoo-ha about?
ROI – No, that’s Not French for “King,” although It Is a Foreign Word in Virginia
A variety of claims have been advanced in favor of building the Bypass. First, there is an economic benefit to reducing the amount of time people lose being stuck in traffic congestion. Second, the project will improve safety, reducing the number of traffic accidents on an accident-prone stretch of road. And third, it will promote economic development – not necessarily in the Charlottesville region but in points south, specifically in Danville and Lynchburg. Building the Bypass around Charlottesville’s congestion hot spot, it could be argued, will reduce truck travel times and improve the competitive posture of manufacturing businesses that use U.S. 29 as a freight corridor.
While the claims are not implausible on their face, no one has subjected them to rigorous study. The Virginia Department of Transportation has never conducted a Return on Investment (ROI) analysis to determine how much economic benefit the commonwealth will derive from its $244 million expenditure, much less how that ROI would compare to alternative transportation improvements. Continue reading.
the funny thing is we get this ROI stuff on transit all all the time.
so… what is the “benefit” to individual commuters?
where did the 8 million per year come from?
I LOVE the fact that you actually drove it! What a HOOT!
here’s a question. Is this REALLY about tractor trailers?
or is it also about people who would drive from DC to NC via Rt 29 rather than I-95 or I-81?
finally.. it’s true that Rt 29 is crapped up in C-ville.
Has anyone bothered to see what has happened to Rt 29 in other places north of C-ville..especially in NoVa?
where is THAT bypass?
Only government would spend $244 million on a project that yields less than $8 million a year in benefits to the public.
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Well, that is thirty years to break even, and one of governments long suits is that it can take such a long view of things.
And that thirty years to break even assumes that the benefit does not increase over time, as population and economics change.
You are right that only government would do such a thing. That is why we need government to do things that private enterprise cannot. Private enterprise does not have the same incentive, or the same abilities.
Still, seven minutes is not exactly Tysons.
well, another way of looking at it is by dividing the total cost by the population of Cville which works out to more than 5K per resident.
now if there were a referendum in Cville to ask voters if they were willing to pay 5K per person for the road – what would the referendum result?
Has Jim Bacon ever seen a transportation project that he liked?
Has Don the Ripper ever seen a transportation project he didn’t like?
Pretty much anything being (over)built in Richmond. I also HATE the Beltway congestion tolling project.
he likes any project that Fairfax does not have to locally fund!
and he HATES the HOT lanes
but LOVES taxing the bejesus out of DTR drivers.
Go figure.
The 495 Express Lanes (f/k/a HOT Lanes) gives drivers a number of benefits for their money. The nature of the project also allowed for the expansion of the Beltway, which may not have been possible without the toll aspect because of federal air quality rules. The DTR toll increases gives no benefits to the drivers. Both the EIS and subsequent traffic studies demonstrate that DTR drivers will not see any significant reduction in traffic congestion because of Dulles Rail, which is being funded primarily by toll increases. How is the former bad and the latter good?
The highway robbery of the Beltway congestion tolling will continue for 75 years. The RTD will eventually be built.
The Beltway congestion toll lanes will not make any difference in human settlement patterns. New Metro stops will cause high density development around those stops.
Connecting Dulles Airport via rail to other Northern Virginia and Washington, DC locations will make the airport a more attractive venue for meetings and conventions.
“he likes any project that Fairfax does not have to locally fund!”.
Given the excess of taxes paid by Fairfax County citizens vs state spending for Fairfax all projects built in Fairfax are locally funded.
Once again LarryG doesn’t seem able to comprehend that the Clown Show in Richmond only gets the money they spend from people living in various localities.
The HOT lanes’ tolls will, indeed last for 75 years. But HOT Lanes were a critical factor in Fairfax County’s decision to grant higher density in Tysons. If they were not being built, the County would not have been able to grant as much density. The Tysons Comp Plan must be viewed as a whole. Take away anything significant and the Plan would not have made the same land use changes.
Keep in mind that Dulles Rail will provide only a minority of trips to and from Tysons. The transit mode split is less than Bethesda and much less than the RB Corridor or Downtown D.C. SOV is and will continue to be the prime transportation mode for Tysons. The HOT Lanes will help reduce SOV trips with free travel for car pools of 3 or more; van pools and express bus service.
It will take about an hour to go from D.C. to Dulles or vice versa via rail. It’s not a quick trip like a rail ride from Downtown to Reagan. MWAA has been changing its story, emphasizing that the biggest Dulles Airport-related users will be Airport workers, not passengers.
The Tysons landowners are not even proposing a convention center for Tysons. I don’t see any convention center near Dulles. For one, Fairfax County would fight it, as it would try to steer more lodging to Tysons.
Listen to the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce and then believe the opposite.
The convention center should be at Dulles, not Tyson’s. Look at the evolution of Denver International Airport to see how an international airport in a hub city with good transportation into the city creates economic development.
Rail to Dulles is not just about Tyson’s. The Metro stop for the Reston Town Center is part of Phase II. I can tell you for a fact that I’ll be able to recruit in Reston if I can get the employees into and out of work on Metro. If not, I’ll expand the company somewhere else. Mass transportation makes a big difference to innovative companies that employee a lot of relatively young people.
Republicans live in a fantasy land where economic growth happens only with low taxes and limited public infrastructure. They talk about Texas and Florida. Texas? If you look at a state like Texas you should see about seven to ten regions and many more localities. Some have good economic growth, some don’t.
The high tax localities of Boston and San Francisco seem to be doing pretty darn well right now. By Republican logic they shouldn’t even exist as economic centers. The taxes are too high and the government is too invasive. Do the Republicans ever venture out into the real world and look around?
DJR – I don’t disagree with your arguments in concept. I also get your arguments about the Clown Show and transportation. But as you rail against Virginia government and roads, you seem happy with the same group making decisions about transit. It’s the same people. Locally, we have the same people who created the transportation mess by approving more building than that which can be supported by the roads.
You would be better off moving your business to the RB Corridor. Rail service there will improve, just as it will either decline or stay even in Fairfax County. The arrival of the Silver Line and the re-routing of some Blue Line trains will enable better service for RB and worse service on the Orange Line past East Falls Church. The need to address service problems on the Orange Line will limit the number of trains that can serve Dulles, Reston and Tysons. Push in one side; it pops out the other.
Most of Virginia has more than adequate roads. Fairfax County does not. Why? Because the Jack Herritys, Kate Hanleys and Gerry Connollys approved more growth than the roads can handle. And we still build infrastructure to help land speculators, rather than provide real traffic congestion reduction.
I’ll believe people are ready to fix transportation when we also get an adequate public facilities law. And with the price of gasoline up 83% under Obama, I don’t think we’ll see a tax increase soon.
TMT:
I like transit because I see the same pattern the world over – you eventually get to a point where more roads won’t work. Cities like London, New York, Chicago, San Francisco work because they have multi-modal mass transit systems.
I get the impression that you would like to see Fairfax County freeze at about today’s population. I see Fairfax County moving to about 2.5M in the next 30 years. Everybody thinks that’s shocking. However, Fairfax County had a population of 275,000 when I was born and now holds 1.1M people. The population density in 1960 was about the same a Chesterfield County today. Now, Fairfax County has already reached city-like population density with 2,738 per sq mi – about the same as the City of Phoenix. My 30 year estimate has Fairfax County at a full city density of 6,329 per sq mi.
The only way to achieve 6,000+ per sq mi density is with a full blown transit system. Metro took about 30 years to demonstrate the human settlement benefits of mass transit. The Orange Line in Arlington benefitted quickly from Metro. However, more scattered areas like Dun Loring and Huntington Ave now have appropriate density and multi-use development.
If you want to stop sprawl you need density. If you want density you need full blown public transit. Full blown public transit takes 20 – 30 years to mature from a dense development perspective.
Therefore, if you want Fairfax County to prosper as a densely populated urban environment in 30 years you have to build Metro now.
All my life people have buried their heads in the sand and insisted that Farifax County would just stop growing. Every year they were proven wrong but simply claimed that the growth would NOW stop.
The growth won’t stop.
It’s time to move from a suburban planning mentality to an urban planning mentality.
TMT:
I have even better news. Since Fairfax County has the highest male life expectancy in the United States I’ll probably be around to see my county of 2.5M people.
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=41&sid=2423499
DJR, I have no desire to stop sprawl. And neither do most people in Fairfax County. Sprawl means lots of kids are not in Fairfax County Public Schools. It means finding a parking place at our libraries. It means the parks and Rec Centers have some space. Sprawl means a higher quality of life in Fairfax County and lower taxes. Sprawl means it’s not just Fairfax County’s problem.
I support adding major increases in density at Tysons. Density can be added in other TOD areas – TOD is limited today to rail. Most people live in Fairfax County because it offers a variety of suburban lifestyles. There is room for urban centers. But, bottom line, people want their suburban lifestyle protected. People like Sharon Bulova, John Foust, Pat Herrity, were elected to office because they promised to protect that lifestyle. A person who campaigned on doubling the county’s population would be handily defeated.
We don’t have the infrastructure to support 2.5 million people. It’s going to cost someone $5.4 billion by 2050 just to build roads & non-rail transit to support increasing the residential population of Tysons from 17 K to 100 K plus change and to increase workers in Tysons from 100 K to 200 K plus change. That’s $2.1 million per week from now to 2050. And that’s just transportation for Tysons. It doesn’t include schools, parks, sewer, water, police, fire, etc. Nor does it include the needs for the rest of the county.
The costs to serve 2.5 million people would be astronomical. The Supervisors would never vote for land use changes to accommodate that level of growth.
I’ve seen data that shows, without foreign immigration, Fairfax County population would be declining. Fairfax County will grow, but much more slowly than in the past.
The Silver Line is a spur, built on two tracks and with a single tunnel under the Potomac River. It’s capacity is limited. The tunnel can handle 27 trains per hour. Today, there are 14 Orange and 13 Blue trains running through the tunnel at peak demand periods. Take off 4 Blue trains and move them to the Yellow Line route. Add the Silver Line. So we have 9 Blue trains per hour. That leaves 18 slots for both the Orange and Silver Lines. How much can you reduce service on the Orange Line and avoid riots? That determines how many Silver Line trains can be run per hour. This is reality. These are the things very few people understand.
The Silver Line will help. With the train operating, you can add density at Tysons and Reston without a one-to-one increase in auto traffic. But just how many depends on how many Orange Line trains need to run west of East Falls Church. What is the cost of a new tunnel under the Potomac? I’ve heard anywhere from between $3-5 billion.
The New York subways generally have express service because they have additional tracks. WMATA doesn’t, and there is no room in most locations to add the extra tracks. Even if there were rights-of-way, how would the extra trackage be funded? We don’t even have the Silver Line finally funded. Rail is a limited solution for transportation problems. It’s capacity to handle massive growth is overstated.
Even if you thought the population of c-ville had anything to do with it, you would have to divide the payments due in any year by the expected population of the entire cville area, plus some more, to get a fair estimation of the per capita cost. Larry’s estimate is too high by a factor of over a hundred.
It would be time to move to an urban planning mentality if it made the slightest. It of sense. Those urban areas that you claim”work” are some of the most expensive e places on the planet to maintain and live in. And they have not even begun to spend the kind of money it will take to sol e the problems they have.
In the long run, Deconstructing Detroit may be the best thing to happen for its remaining citizens.
10 of the fifteen wealthiest counties are in the DC area.
Loudoun is the richest, and FAIRFAX IS SECOND.
Fauquier isn’t on the list. And neither is DC.
The FBI is moving out, as did NRA.
I claim victory in my long running argument with EMR over where the jobs are, a d where they are going.
Bucky Fuller claimed the ideal city would be laid out like a string bean, with one thoroughfare. Consider route 28 / Dulles as a Buckminster city, and you have the idea. Or I-270 BIOTECH.
Or even CBVT Orange line.
But the preferred pattern is clear, despite all the pushing in the other direction. Despite the advantages of urban areas, dwellers and job centers want out. The benefits are not worth the increased cost.
re: Cville Bypass and 5K per citizen cost.
what I really asked was WOULD the citizens of Cville APPROVE a referenda that put 5K of debt on each of them for the road.
re: the “jobs”… re: TMT “sprawl” helps keep urban areas with “jobs” less expensive by exporting the housing and education costs to exurbia.
If sprawl keeps costs down for the urban areas it isn’t doing a very good.job.
New York is the most expensive city in the nation to live in. By any measure of grid street, availability, rail transit, and density, it should be inexpensive , easy to , and have low taxes.
Excellent Article! But are these relevant ROI calculations?
The first ROI to consider is that of state-wide politicians who are willing to spend vast sums of other people’s money (like $244M) to curry favor of Lynchburg politics (whose politicians find it convenient to blame Charlottesville for their economic difficulties). If you spend other people’s money, the ROI is infinite, because your denominator is 0.
The second ROI that matters is that of local Charlottesville developers, who spend not one dime of their own money on the road but reap capital gains for the enhanced value of properties near the northern terminus or prevent losses from alternative approaches. Of course, they DO have campaign donations and other expenses to account for in their ROI, but compared to building a road, the cost of local political influence is probably a bargain.
Oh dear. Getting cynical again.